Author Archives: kerr

Rose G. on U.S.-Russian Iran Coop

In the fresh issue of _Pro et Contra_, Rose Gottemoeller has an amazing article that explores possible avenues for engagement between Russia and the United States on Iran. Not that my bias matters, but I wholeheartedly agree with Rose’s interpretation of Russian policy on Iran and do see that a reintroduction of the “Angarsk proposal”:http://www.nti.org/e_research/e3_93.html to the Iranians might prove useful.

I wanted to highlight the article -because I nodded in agreement about a million times while reading it- because it argues that the 1972 “*Agreement Between the Government of The United States of America and the Government of The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Prevention of Incidents On and Over the High Seas*”:http://www.state.gov/t/ac/trt/4791.htm (INCSEA) could prove to be a useful venue for U.S.-Russian joint efforts to engage the Iranians and, as such, would also serve to buttress U.S.-Russian relations.

INCSEA regulates dangerous maneuvers at sea and restricts other forms of harassment such as shining search lights onto the bridges of vessels, or shooting flares at them. It also provides for increased communication at sea—including advanced notification of naval exercises, and regular consultations and information exchanges between the navies.

*Naval incidents have been precisely an area of sharp tension between the United States and Iran for many years, in the Persian Gulf and Straits of Hormuz*. In January 2008, for example, U.S. media reported that Iranian speed boats were threatening to ram U.S. naval vessels, and were even moving toward them at high speed. The United States has not been alone in tangling with the Iranian navy. The previous year, the Iranians went so far as to seize the crew of a British naval vessel, holding them for nearly a week before their release.

Because naval incidents provide so much in the way of publicity for the Iranian regime, *the Iranians may have no interest in engaging in an “incidents at sea” negotiation*. However, they might be interested, in the first instance, in *understanding* how the United States and Russia have been able to cooperate in this area. The U.S. and Russia could develop a joint briefing based on the history of the agreement’s implementation, emphasizing each of the categories covered—dangerous maneuvers, harassment, pre-notification of actions at sea, and information exchanges. They could also *talk about the procedures developed for implementation*, and in particular, the *routine process of annual review*.

[snip]

With the Iranians, the *first incentive for joining the discussions might be the legitimizing function of engagement with high-level interlocutors*, the United States and Russia. In the end, however, the *common-sense, low-key approach of the agreement might also prove attractive*, leading to a negotiation that could have some real benefits to security in the Persian Gulf, raising confidence levels among all participants in the negotiations with Iran. Eventually, such negotiations, if they lead to an agreement, could have a broader impact on security in the region.

As far as the United States and Russia are concerned, the very fact that the *INCSEA agreement is such a routine success of Cold War diplomacy may enable both countries to use it as a mechanism for joint cooperation on Iran, despite the hangover from the summer war in Georgia*. The naval communities involved in implementing the agreement include a wealth of experience on both sides, including many senior retired naval officers who would make responsible and serious interlocutors with the Iranians.

Anyway, the article, titled “U.S.-Russian Cooperation on Iran: Aftermath of the Summer War in Georgia,” is really worth a read. “Check it out”:http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=22449&prog=zru. (I should note that this is one example of _good_ “out of the box”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1784/topics-for-study thinking.)

Iran on Those Documents

Meaning, the documents given to the IAEA about the now-famous “alleged studies” on Green Salt, RVs, etc. that the DG “keeps”:http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2008/gov2008-15.pdf talking “about”:http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2008/gov2008-38.pdf in his reports.

Iran sent a “letter”:http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Infcircs/2008/infcirc737.pdf in September to the IAEA which provides some interesting details about what the documents (PowerPoint presentations, in at least some cases) actually consist of. I know it’s just their word, etc., but still…

Topics for Study

I hope a lot of transition recommendations point out that the Cold War is over and that non-state actors are important. Those observations should be followed by “out of the box” thinking which rehashes existing nonproliferation ideas.

That would be great.

*Update:* A FoKerr reminds me that WMD terrorism is a threat. Someone should mention that as well, because no one’s ever thought of it.

Floating NPP Promotional Video

While checking out the snazzy “Atomenergoprom website”:http://www.atomenergoprom.ru/en/, I found a must-see promotional video on floating NPPs (with corny music).

This video probably dates back to “spring 2008 or earlier”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1626/floating-npps-a-futuristic-conception. Thus, it doesn’t reflect the fact that the floating NPP project was “shifted from Sevmash to Baltiyskiy Zavod”:http://www.rosatom.com/en/news/11331_08.08.2008 in August.

I can’t seem to be able to embed it, but “check it out at this link”:http://www.atomenergoprom.ru/en/press/video/.

p. !/images/45.jpg!

Only One Ratification Left for CANWFZ

Keep forgetting to mention that a week ago, Tajikistan’s parliament ratified the 2006 treaty establishing a nuclear-weapon-free-zone in Central Asia (CANWFZ). Tajikistan’s action follows Turkmenistan’s ratification in April of this year. (Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan have already deposited the instruments of ratification in 2007.)

This leaves “Kazakhstan”:http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/Kazakhstan/index.html as the sole remaining state that needs to ratify.

For more info, check out the “CANWFZ Inventory file”:http://cns.miis.edu/inventory/pdfs/canwz.pdf and “this backgrounder”:http://cns.miis.edu/stories/060905.htm. The CNS “NWFZ Clearinghouse”:http://cns.miis.edu/nwfz_clearinghouse/index.htm is useful too.

On Cessation of Fingerpointing and Special Relations

In case you’re not in the mood to think or talk about Iran or Syria, here is some stuff on India. (But who cares about India now?)

Anyway, Rosatom’s Kiriyenko and crew have been “making the rounds at Kudankulam”:http://www.hindu.com/2008/11/20/stories/2008112055441300.htm. (Check out physical progress of construction at NPCIL’s “snazzy new website”:http://npcil.nic.in/npcil_new_web/main/ConstructionDetail.aspx?ReactorID=77.) Apparently, Kiriyenko “was quite pleased”:http://www.rosatom.com/en/news/12774_20.11.2008:

bq. “Today, we have seen significant changes at the two reactors and auxiliary facilities,” Kiriyenko said while opening a working conference after visiting the site. He thanked Indian and Russian engineers for *“working hard for the sake of the general cause and not pointing at one another in case of problems.”*

Also, a few days back, Interfax “conducted an interview”:http://www.interfax.com/17/447042/Interview.aspx with India’s Ambassador to Russia Prabhat Shukla. Below is my favorite part:

[Interfax:] _In your opinion, what is the outlook of Indian-Russian contacts in the field of atomic energy, given that Nuclear Suppliers Group recently lifted its sanctions from India? Does India intend to sign a contract on cooperation with Russia in this field?_

[Amb. Shukla:] Just to clarify something that is important, India was not under any sanctions from the Nuclear Suppliers Group. In the previous scenario, the Nuclear Suppliers Group approved nuclear trade and commerce only to countries that have accepted full scope and comprehensive safeguards. India does not accept comprehensive safeguards. What has now happened is that the Nuclear Suppliers Group has made an exemption specific to India. Notwithstanding India not accepting comprehensive safeguards, the NSG countries have now decided to engage in nuclear cooperation with India. It is a very welcome development and *I must pause here to say a sincere thank you to the Russian leadership for its support to India in the NSG. I know that it was very effective support which we got from Russia. Russia also lobbied very hard in our favour with other NSG members*.

As for what we are going to do, we are hoping to sign an intergovernmental agreement when President Medvedev is in India. I think Russia is in a unique position as far as nuclear trade with India is concerned because Russia is already constructing two nuclear reactors in Kudankulam in India. I think this is now going to grow, and *Russia has probably the best prospects among any of our partners in winning more lucrative contracts for nuclear reactors* since they already have men and material on the ground, in India.

Anyway, get ready for a “Russo-Indian nuclear lovefest”:http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20081118_3186.php in December.

Ah yes, Shukla also noted that the process of deciding who gets to sell India the 126 fighters will be “very fair, objective and transparent.” _Riiiiight._

Nuclear Renaissance à la Russe

Rosatom is running its annual “_Nuclear Renaissance_”:http://www.atomfoto.ru photo contest. Goals of this project include chronicling the development and growth of nuclear power and industry in Russia, and creating and promoting a new visual form for the nuclear industry.

I came across a seemingly random pic titled “Nuclear Renaissance”:http://www.atomfoto.ru/photos/0c85f04dd9b529da195d8d272ec6a5a4,pos=15,picsperpage=,sort=s5 and just had to share. Apparently, these are birdies in a nest made of industrial wire at the “Kalinin NPP”:http://knpp.rosenergoatom.ru/eng/.

!/images/62.jpg!

Andy G and Russia

Riffing on Anya’s “comment”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2091/who-speaks-for-russia#comment, I would agree that Andy Grotto’s “admonition”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2091/who-speaks-for-russia applies only to the numerous advocates of naive diplomacy for achieving Utopian ends.