Just for fun…back in the day, Powell described the likely US response to a North Korean nuclear test in a “2003 interview”:http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/03_38/b3850033.htm with _Business Week_ :

Q: And if the North Koreans test nuclear arms?

A: If they test we’ll take note of their test. The only reason they are testing is to scare the international community. The President has already accepted the possibility that they might test. And we will say *”Gee, that was interesting.”*

The 50-year history of dealing with this regime is that they are marvelous in terms of threats, in terms of rhetoric and actions. Well, they might take an action, but this time they would be sticking their finger not just in the eye of the United States, but I think Kim Jong Il will have to think twice about whether he would do such a thing in light of Chinese involvement.

Interesting, indeed…

Well.

Japan’s MFA is apparently saying that North Korea may have conducted a second test, “according to AP.”:http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061011/ap_on_re_as/koreas_nuclear_test_2;_ylt=AqNpJvlKrhHLpZFjc_in.Y6CscEA;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

South Korea seems to say otherwise, though:

bq. …a South Korean official said seismic monitors did not detect any tremors that could indicate possible second North Korea nuclear test.

Japan’s NHK TV is reporting the same thing, “according to Reuters.”:http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061011/wl_nm/korea_north_dc_58;_ylt=AqCji4lInHJivU1PBg8FXU2CscEA;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

I checked “NHK’s website”:http://www.nhk.or.jp/english/ and they do have a headline to that effect running across the top. Reuters also said that a South Korean official observed that no reports of tremors have surfaced.

I “wrote”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1232/more-norky-goodness yesterday that the South Koreans were monitoring a North Korean site for a possible second test.

*Update:* Apparently not, “AP now reports”:http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061011/ap_on_re_as/koreas_nuclear_test;_ylt=AmrrJxfavDBRrv3SQdDSs6_uOrgF;_ylu=X3oDMTA3b3JuZGZhBHNlYwM3MjE. May have been an earthquake in Japan.

For those of you taking a break from your glue binge, some additional items:

*1.* Here’s “the text”:http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/09/world/asia/09ktext.html?_r=1&oref=slogin of North Korea’s statement on the nuclear tests:

The field of scientific research in the DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] successfully conducted an underground nuclear test under secure conditions on October 9, Juche 95 [2006] at a stirring time when all the people of the country are making a great leap forward in the building of a great, prosperous, powerful socialist nation.

It has been confirmed that there was no such danger from radioactive emission in the course of the nuclear test, as it was carried out under scientific consideration and careful calculation.

The nuclear test was conducted with indigenous wisdom and technology, 100 percent.

It marks a historic event as it greatly encouraged and pleased the KPA [Korean People’s Army] and people that have wished to have powerful self-reliant defense capability.

It will contribute to defending the peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in the area around it.

*2.* AFP has “the elements”:http://www.spacewar.com/2006/061009181837.x6et6urp.html of a US-sponsored draft sanctions resolution:

The diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the inspections were part of 13 elements for a draft resolution circulated by US Ambassador to the UN John Bolton earlier Monday to punish Pyongyang for its first-ever nuclear weapons test.

US media have quoted intelligence officials saying one option being considered is to have US and allied naval forces intercept and search all North Korean bound shipping for weapons-related material.

The diplomat said the tentative draft “would authorize international inspection of cargo to and from North Korea to limit proliferation” and “prohibit trade in all materials with direct or dual use application for weapons of mass destruction (WMD).”

Other elements would also call for suspending “all activities related to (North Korea’s) ballistic missile programs”, urge “member states to take steps to ensure their territory is not used to facilitate WMD-related activities” and bar “financial transactions that support missile activities.”

[snip]

The US ideas would have the council “prohibit trade in all military goods and services” as well as “trade in luxury goods”, “freeze assets and transactions associated with WMD” and take steps “to prevent abuse of financial system”, an apparent reference to alleged counterfeiting activities by the North, according to the diplomat.

The tentative draft would also condemn Monday’s test and reinforce missile-related sanctions passed by the Security Council last July after Pyongyang test-fired seven missiles in Japan’s direction, including a long-range Taepodong-2 believed to be capable of striking US soil.

The US suggestions, to be taken up by council experts later Monday, call for a review of North Korea’s “response” and “the need for additional action in 30 days

*3.* In a “previous post,”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1216/norks-threaten-nuke-test I alluded to the fact that, if the Norks wanted to keep ascending the escalation ladder, they would be hard-pressed to come up with something else to top a nuclear test. I can’t say that I thought about what they’d do if the test failed, but it seems like they may just go back to the drawing board. They will also likely “maintain their calls”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1216/norks-threaten-nuke-test for a diplomatic solution via the six-party talks and/or bilateral negotiations with the US.

(I think I also said that the chance of a test was “fairly low.” Damn it.)

Anyway, North Korea’s previous missile tests may suggest a sort of precedent for this. Recall that the first test of the TD-1 failed (because the third stage didn’t separate), but North Korea didn’t test another longer-range missile until this past July. After the first test, in fact, North Korea adopted its unilateral missile flight-testing moratorium.

In any case, the South Korean NIS seems to think that North Korea may have another one ready to go, the “AP reports”:http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061009/ap_on_re_as/koreas_nuclear_more_tests_1;_ylt=AtGnvv4D_DNi74N_uCmfn4iCscEA;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl:

The chief of South Korea’s intelligence agency said Monday that North Korea could possibly conduct additional nuclear tests, a lawmaker briefed by him said.

Kim Seung-kyu, head of the National Intelligence Service, made the comment at a meeting of the parliamentary intelligence committee, saying his agency detected the movement of about 15 people at a suspected underground test site at Punggye-ri, in northeastern North Korea, according to the lawmaker, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the information’s sensitive nature.

“Kim didn’t say the movement at Punggye-ri indicates North Korea is planning more tests. But still, he said there is a high possibility of North Korea conducting additional tests, as India and Pakistan did,” the lawmaker told The Associated Press.

Another lawmaker, Rep. Yoo Sun-ho of the ruling Uri Party, also confirmed that the spy chief said his agency detected “abnormal signs” at Punggye-ri, but said he doesn’t believe the intelligence report was meaningful. He didn’t elaborate.

AP, however, also has “this account”:http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061009/ap_on_re_as/un_nkorea_ambassador_1;_ylt=Aki6h1MUSY46m4cEkbhn.LSCscEA;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl of North Korea’s UN Ambassador being asked about the chance of another test:

bq. Pak Gil Yon told reporters he was proud of the North Koreans who conducted the test, and said the Security Council ought to be, too. Asked if the North planned any more tests, Pak said: “That will be enough. You don’t think so?”

*4.* One wonders if the North Koreans would have conducted this test if their July TD-2 launch attempt had succeeded. It could well be that the failure generated additional pressure from the relevant hardliners to test. Who knows?

*5.* The Bush administration policy has failed, in case anyone was wondering. I doubt that there’s ever been a case where there was a better chance that we could have done something to prevent a nuclear test but didn’t. I imagine this will somehow be blamed on the Clinton administration. Not that the Norks were justified in what they did.

*6.* Remember what “Ice-T said”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1215/ice-t-and-dprk:

bq. we’re really in a position where we could all die. Vietnam wasn’t it, but right now, with North Korea and all these motherf*ckers, this is real shit.

*Update:*

Yonhap “has more details”:http://english.yna.co.kr/Engnews/20061009/630000000020061009212019E6.html on the site that ROK intel is monitoring:

South Korea’s intelligence authorities were closely monitoring another North Korean site in the country’s northeast on Monday evening as they spotted suspicious movement there that could possibly be part of preparations for another nuclear test.

The authorities were watching Punggye-ri in North Hamgyeong Province as they spotted up to 40 personnel and vehicles beginning to move around the area in the afternoon, Kim Seung-kyu, South Korea’s chief intelligence official, was quoted as saying in a parliamentary subcommittee meeting.

“We are closely watching whether Pyongyang intends to conduct another nuclear test,” he said.

The UN has the “full text,”:http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2006/sc8849.doc.htm also replicated below.

“The Security Council expresses its deep concern over the statement of 3 October 2006 by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), in which it stated that the DPRK would conduct a nuclear test in the future.

“The Security Council reaffirms that the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery constitute a threat to international peace and security. The Security Council deplores the DPRK’s announcement of withdrawal from the Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (the Treaty) and its stated pursuit of nuclear weapons, in spite of its Treaty and International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards obligations. The Security Council deems that, should the DPRK carry out its threat of a nuclear weapon test, it would jeopardize peace, stability and security in the region and beyond.

“The Security Council underlines that such a test would bring universal condemnation by the international community and would not help the DPRK to address the stated concerns, particularly with regard to strengthening its security. The Security Council urges the DPRK not to undertake such a test and to refrain from any action that might aggravate tension, to work on the resolution of non-proliferation concerns and to facilitate a peaceful and comprehensive solution through political and diplomatic efforts. The Security Council reiterates the need for the DPRK to comply fully with all the provisions of Security Council resolution 1695 (2006).

“The Security Council supports the six-party talks and calls for their early resumption, with a view to achieving the verifiable denuclearization of the Korean peninsula in a peaceful manner and to maintaining peace and stability on the Korean peninsula and in North-East Asia.

“The Security Council urges the DPRK to return immediately to the six-party talks without precondition, and to work towards the expeditious implementation of the 19 September 2005 joint statement and, in particular, to abandon all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programmes.

“The Security Council will be monitoring this situation closely. The Security Council stresses that a nuclear test, if carried out by the DPRK, would represent a clear threat to international peace and security and that, should the DPRK ignore calls of the international community, the Security Council will act consistent with its responsibility under the Charter of the United Nations.”

My friend and former co-worker Chris McIntosh has earned a “slot”:http://www.tnr.com/count_contributors.mhtml at TNR’s post-season baseball-blog “Deep in the Count.”:http://www.tnr.com/blog/count

The blog has some very good writing, although it’s premised on the inane assumption that baseball is not boring.

Here’s his bio:

bq. Chris McIntosh is a diehard Atlanta Braves fan by birth (yes, we do exist), a White Sox fan by marriage, and a Ph.D student at the University of Chicago via an oversight by the admissions committee. He writes for newfoolintown.com and athensexchange.com and hopes his dissertation committee is aware of none of these things.

Nice to wake up to.

Reuters, via CNN, has “part of”:http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/10/03/nkorea.nuclear.text.reut/index.html of the North Korean FM statement. Here’s the scary part:

bq. Firstly, the field of scientific research of the DPRK will in the future conduct a nuclear test under the condition where safety is firmly guaranteed.

Interestingly, the statement seems to make an effort to assuage one of the biggest fears concerning its nuclear weapons program:

Secondly, the DPRK will never use nuclear weapons first but strictly prohibit any threat of nuclear weapons and nuclear transfer.

*snip*

The DPRK will always sincerely implement its international commitment in the field of nuclear non-proliferation as a responsible nuclear weapons state.

I’m not sure how effective this reassurance will be, though.

North Korea has made threats like this “before,”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1167/nork-nuke-test-site but this is the most explicit. That, along with the timing of the announcement, makes me think that this is troubling.

Incidentally, when I was talking to people while writing “this article”:http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2006_09/newsanalysis.asp, I was kind of surprised at the number of reasonable people who considered the risk of a test to be pretty high. Personally, I think that the chances that North Korea will test for the purpose of escalating the current diplomatic situation are still fairly low, mainly because there’s not a whole lot they could do for an encore.

Perhaps, though, the Norks want to test for the most basic reason: to see if their weapons (if they have them) work.

One sorta bright spot: the statement _does_ indicate that Pyongyang wants to walk back its nuclear weapons program:

Thirdly, the DPRK will do its utmost to realize the denuclearization of the peninsula and give impetus to the world-wide nuclear disarmament and the ultimate elimination of nuclear weapons.

*snip*

The ultimate goal of the DPRK is not a “denuclearization” to be followed by its unilateral disarmament but one aimed at settling the hostile relations between the DPRK and the U.S. and removing the very source of all nuclear threats from the Korean Peninsula and its vicinity.

There is no change in the principled stand of the DPRK to materialize the denuclearization of the peninsula through dialogue and negotiation.

This last part is fairly similar to what North Korea has repeatedly said about the talks. So maybe this is more bluster.

On a related note, the _Joongang Ilbo_ “reported about 2 weeks ago”:http://joongangdaily.joins.com/200609/21/200609212206103439900090309031.html that a South Korean legislator has been saying that, according to ROK intelligence, North Korea has what looks like a test shaft prepared:

North Korea has constructed an underground tunnel for possible use in a nuclear weapons test, a Grand National Party lawmaker with close ties to the intelligence community said yesterday.
Chung Hyung-keun cited sources in the National Intelligence Service for his claim. He said a shaft 700 meters (0.4 miles) deep has been sunk into Mount Mantap in North Hamkyong province with a horizontal tunnel running nearby.

*snip*

Pointing out similarities between the suspect site and those for underground nuclear tests in the U.S. state of Nevada and in India and Pakistan, he said that Pyongyang seemed to be preparing for a similar test. He said the vertical shaft was more than twice as long as would be necessary, interpreting that as a desire by North Korean scientists to reduce the risk of atmospheric fallout.

Wrong week to quit sniffing glue…

Decibel Magazine has “an interview”:http://www.decibelmagazine.com/features_detail.aspx?id=4908 with Ice-T where he discusses, among other topics, some current foreign policy issues.

It’s pretty sweet. Here’s what he had to say about the hunt for Osama bin Laden and the status of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program:

*Ice-T:* …we ain’t lookin’ for bin Laden, right? He set it off, and we kinda left him out in the cold. We already know the politics of the Taliban at the end of the day, but bin Laden got off. I mean, we’re allowed to fight back. If you bomb us, we’re allowed to f*ck with you, but they ain’t even lookin’ for bin Laden. And he’s like, “F*ck you” — still. [Laughs] He’s in, like, a Puffy video right now or some shit.

*Decibel:* Wherever he is, he’s a hero to the people who are hiding him.

*Ice-T:* Exactly. In the meantime, we’re trying to play some PlayStation and have a life, but Bush and Cheney and all these motherf*ckers got foreign policy issues that quite possibly could… You know what the f*cking thing is? Right now is the only time in my life where we’re really in a position where we could all die. Vietnam wasn’t it, but right now, with North Korea and all these motherf*ckers, this is real shit. A nuke could go off within the next three years real easy. And now that the Middle East is buck wile, the United States doesn’t even know what the f*ck to do. They can’t even clean up New Orleans, man.

Now get back to your PlayStation…