Monthly Archives: April 2008

P Scoblic on Able Archer 83

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I’m a bit more than half way through Peter Scoblic’s excellent new book, “_U.S. Vs. Them: How A Half Century of Conservatism Has Undermined America’s Security._ “:http://www.powells.com/biblio/1-9780670018826-2 You should read it. Seriously. All of you.

Peter has a way with words. For instance, he describes (accurately, I imagine) the 1983 “NATO Able Archer”:https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/a-cold-war-conundrum/source.htm#HEADING1-13 exercise as “bowel loosening.”

Spencer Ackerman, who, like me, had Peter as an editor, highlights “another metaphor.”:http://thinkprogress.org/attackerman/tag/not-everything-about-tnr-blows/

Happy Tuesday.

Indian Nuclear Test: 1994 Edition

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Wow. K Santhanam, the former director of India’s Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses who played what C Ferguson “called”:http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2008_04/Ferguson.asp a “leadership role” during New Delhi’s 1998 nuclear weapons tests, told “Times Now”:http://timesnow.tv/NewsDtls.aspx?NewsID=6911 television that India canceled a 1994 nuclear test at the last minute.

Interesting topics include: New Delhi’s perception of other nuclear threats at the time, steps that India took to conceal test preparations, and domestic political considerations.

The full text of the interview, broadcast April 1, is below, with relevant portions in bold.

Srinjoy: Why compelled India to think of testing a nuclear bomb in 1994?

Santhanam: First of all you had *the clandestine programme of Pakistan; there was an increasing evidence of collaboration, co-operation, collusion between China and Pakistan, in nuclear weaponry. Specifically the trigger development which technology the Chinese had.* Secondly, other international factors came into play. You may remember The Glen and Symington amendments under which economic and military aid to Pakistan was stopped because of Pakistan’s Nuclear programme despite having certified.

For a variety of reasons we have lived with a nuke China, would it be possible for India to live with a nuke Pakistan, with a history of conflicts? So, the matter was analysed by a special group of experts, drawn from various disciplines as to what exactly should be done and the committee submitted its report to the then PM Narsimha Rao. *This was the build up, so obviously the direction was step by step be prepared to consider conducting tests and exercising the nuke option.*

Srinjoy: What went into the preparation for the test?

Santhanam: *There were two shafts in Pokhran dug during 1981-82 and they had been sealed because no further work was likely to occur. These two shafts were reactivated, we had to blow out the concrete lid and then pump out all the water, do all the repair work.* Brilliant job was done by the engineer in adverse circumstances.

Since we had a lull, so to say, *after December 1994 we came across abandoned wells in the area, the villagers had left because there was no water, deep enough wells, we could use them without inviting attention of digging a new one which the satellites would pick up. So these three wells in an area called Navtala, where identified, they were repaired, then made suitable to receive the device.*

Srinjoy: About the 1994 situation *how were they detected by the Americans*, what led to their detection?

Santhanam: *One must be aware that the resolution of the cameras, whether it is the US satellite or the Russian satellites these days is such that they can easily detect, especially in daylight,* night time the resolution is always poor. The phrase is change detection.

Srinjoy: So what happened after the detection what made the government back off?

Santhanam: Let me say the decision to conduct a test is ultimately political. We must acknowledge that fact because the technical factor is only one factor, amongst a host of other elements leading to a decision making at the highest level.

Srinjoy: How did it happen…*did the White house call? How does it actually happen on the ground?*

Santhanam: *It involves the White house; it involves the US embassy in Delhi. It also involves the Indian government and our embassy in Washington. It’s a tight dance.*

Srinjoy: What happened after that?

Santhanam: We were quite clear that *if work is resumed at these sites there is likely to be detection by satellites.* We were clear this would be detected and it was detected by the US satellite and they had conveyed their concerns to New Delhi. This was as you approach the end of 1994. There was another internal development that of parliamentary elections. *The concern was that if you conduct the test in November-December. It could be construed as a way of influencing the results of the elections* by saying that we are a firm government, we know how to attend to our national security needs, but the timing would have invited a lot of criticism. *The consensus was that ‘let’s hold’. After it is over we will revisit the case.*

Interestingly, Bhubnesh Chaturvedi, former Minister of State in the Prime Minister’s Office confirmed that India canceled the tests because of the elections:

bq. We had the capacity to do it, but we did not do it, because the elections were near. We did not want the successive government to bear the brunt. If the government would have continued in power, we could have done it.

A transcript of the interview is “here”:http://timesnow.tv/NewsDtls.aspx?NewsID=6911. You can download a copy “here.”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/file_download/11

Wanna Work at Bushehr? Now You Can!

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“Atomstroyexport”:http://www.atomstroyexport.com/ has listed *two job vacancies in Iran*, one of them is on site at the Bushehr NPP (the actual listings are in Russian, sorry).

The “first listing”:http://www.atomstroyexport.ru/actual/?id=355 is for an *English-language translator*, apparently to be based in Tehran. In order to be considered, one must be a *male, under 45 years of age*, computer-literate, with advanced translation and interpretation education and experience. For the digs at the Bushehr NPP, Atomstroyexport is “seeking”:http://www.atomstroyexport.ru/actual/?id=285 a *procurement engineer*, who must also be a *male, under 50*, computer-literate, with advanced technical education, and experience of working at an NPP (particularly with cooling and ventilation equipment).

I won’t comment on my personal eligibility aside from admitting that (among other things) my lack of experience with cooling and ventilation equipment disqualifies me from applying. I’ll also note that a Moscow-based translation/interpretation position at Atomstroyexport “calls for”:http://www.atomstroyexport.ru/actual/?id=260 both male and female applicants, sets no age requirements, AND offers medical insurance unlike the position in Tehran. Nevertheless, here is the *contact info* (in English) for “Atomstroyexport’s offices in Iran”:http://www.atomstroyexport.com/about/Countries%20of%20presence/.

*Update:* Maybe Atomstroyexport needs to hire some “export control”:http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKHAF33311920080423 experts too.

New McIntosh and Storey Title Page

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The authors of “_Between Acquisition and Use: Examining the Improbability of Nuclear Terrorism_”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/file_download/3 gave me a new title page, complete with their contact info, a while back and I have neglected to post it. “Here it is.”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/file_download/10

Dhanapala-Mania

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I recently learned that Jayantha Dhanapala, has a “website”:http://www.jayanthadhanapala.com/ehome.html, though I’m not sure he considers it a blog.

Among other things, Dhanapala chaired the 1995 NPT RevCon, which resulted in the indefinite extension of that treaty. He was also the UN undersecretary-general for disarmament affairs.

ACA has some stuff from him that you can check out, including his “speech”:http://www.armscontrol.org/aca/dhanapala.asp at the January 2k2 ACA annual meeting and a “1999 _ACT_ interview.”:http://www.armscontrol.org/act/1999_09-10/dhaso.asp

Bloggery

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Anya recently exhorted me to make more with Teh Blogging, so blog I shall.

For starters, check out the “Platts blog Fuel for Thought.”:http://www.platts.com/weblog/europower/

Since I’m uncreative, I’ll add a NOFX vid. They’ve been around for at least 23 years, if you wanna feel old.

Happy Birthday, Pelindaba Treaty!

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To celebrate the 12th anniversary of the signing of the African Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone Treaty (Pelindaba Treaty), the talented folks at the CNS International Organizations and Nonproliferation Program (IONP) put together a “*resource page on the Pelindaba Treaty*”:http://cns.miis.edu/research/treaty_pelindaba/index.htm.

On March 26, Mozambique became the 24th state party to ratify the Treaty, which means the African Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone needs concrete action of just four more states to become a reality. CNS has been actively engaged in promoting the Treaty’s entry into force, so aside from the all you need to know on the Pelindaba Treaty, the resource page also features presentations from a recent “workshop in Pretoria”:http://cns.miis.edu/research/treaty_pelindaba/pdfs/pelindaba_workshop_summary.pdf, organized by CNS and Africa’s Institute for Security Studies. An accompanying “piece”:http://www.cns.miis.edu/pubs/week/080331_pelindaba.htm by IONP’s Jean du Preez concludes:

If one looks at the current state of affairs regarding the Pelindaba Treaty, then the conclusion should clearly be that the *glass is half full* instead of the more negative half empty perspective.

[snip]

The *challenge before African countries*, and in particular those that have not yet ratified the treaty, *should therefore not be how to implement the accord, but who will become the 28th state party*, thereby taking credit for ensuring that the longest aspired NWFZ in the world will finally become a reality. Then the symbolism attached to the Zulu name of the treaty, which roughly translates into “the matter or discussion is settled”, will have true meaning. It will not only signal the end of the struggle to make Africa free of nuclear weapons, but it would be *a real step towards a nuclear weapons free world*, and not simply a vision of such a goal.

Foodies

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Way off-topic but the below comment from “this post”:http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/04/02/economic-indicators-fast-food-edition.aspx must be shared:

bq. Well, as a lifelong bachelor for 37 years, I’d say I stopped going into restaurants where you tip a waiter or waitress about 10 years ago. I’ve always averred that it’s woefully wasteful. Why the hell should I pay extra just for someone to bring my food to the table? I’m perfectly capable of doing that myself. And the way I see it, food is just something I need to survive. That’s why I either get 99-cent items at Burger King, Jack in the Box, or McDonalds or buy 99-cent microwavable items from the grocery store — I don’t need overpriced baby-back ribs from Chili’s and the like. It’s just frigging food any way you slice it. What really cracks me up are elderly people who go to overpriced cafeterias for food they’re perfectly capable of fixing at home, because they’re the ones who gripe that Social Security isn’t enough income yet blow crucial dollars of their income for eating out. Nowhere in the Constitution is it written that they’re entitled the money to eat out, nor is it written that a family of 4 is equally entitled to eat at Appleby’s and T.G.I. Fridays and the like every weekend like so many families robotically do as if they’re all pod people. So bravo to fast-food places that are getting improved business nowadays. They offer nondescript food at good prices that *may not be as tasty as meat at Outback Steakhouse but are perfectly fine nevertheless.*

[Via “Atrios.”:http://atrios.blogspot.com/2008_03_30_archive.html#5721364284554182839]

I cannot believe that someone typed that last sentence. Or any of the sentences above it, for that matter.

Anyway, this post’s value-added is a reaction from FoKerr _TBR_. Speaking of her former in-laws, she wrote that:

One time they were talking to my mother about visiting Charleston, where they have a condo and where my parents had just taken a trip. My mom was trying to talk to them about it, and was gushing about all the great restaurants, how the seafood was so fresh, etc. My mother in law stared at her and said, *”We just go to Applebees. There’s no need for the rest of that nonsense.”*

Then she went back to Canton, Ohio and told the rest of her family that my parents were snobs.

Snobs, indeed. If I ate seafood, Charleston would be a prime destination.

CWC RevCon Blogs

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“Cheryl Vos”::http://fas.org/blog/cw/ of FAS, as well as “Daniel Feakes,”:http://cwc2008.org/ have good blogs to keep a eye on if you wanna keep up with the CWC Review Conference, which is taking place this week.

Cheryl “blogged about”:http://fas.org/blog/cw/2008/04/highlights-from-march-issue-of-arms-control-today.html the CWC pieces in the “March issue”:http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2008_03/ of _ACT_, so I didn’t have to. Check them out as well. Speaking of which, ACA’s CWC reader is “here.”:http://www.armscontrol.org/pdf/CWC2008_READERWEB.pdf

Leopold the Cat and NATO

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This is kind of silly, but since we’ve previously talked about “Putinisms”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1093/putin-on-iran, I just thought I’d continue the tradition by mentioning that the *”Let’s be friends, guys”* comment “made by Vladimir Putin”:http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080404/103767083.html at the NATO summit in Bucharest puts in mind of a classic Soviet-era cartoon about a cat named Leopold (“Приключения Кота Леопольда”).

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In the cartoon, Leopold gets hassled and taunted by two pesky mice, who chant “Leopold, come out, you sleazy coward!” (Леопольд, выходи, подлый трус!). At the end of every episode, the mice tell Leopold that they are sorry for causing him trouble, to which Leopold responds “Guys, let’s be friends.” (Ребята, давайте жить дружно!)

I can’t quite picture Putin with a big purple bow tie… But you should check out an episode (or more) of the cartoon “here”:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhZPtWYZmUA.