Author Archives: kerr

Singling Out the Brits

The Russian MFA recently released a summary article titled “Russia in International Counterterrorism Cooperation in 2008”:http://www.ln.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/e78a48070f128a7b43256999005bcbb3/37d2cc4f7789adc6c325752e00533147?OpenDocument. The article seems to confirm that, at least from the Russian perspective, bilateral cooperation on terrorism issues between Moscow and Washington is going strong.

bq. [D]espite all the twists and turns of the recent period in Russian-US relations, the bilateral anti-terror mechanism – *the Russia-US working group – has been working during this period almost without interruptions* (with allowance for the August “freezes”), performing as well as previously in terms of the exchange of information, analytical layouts, and the national experience in improving anti-terror, fulfilling the appropriate interagency coordination and so on. That is, it turns out that in contemporary conditions antiterrorist cooperation can and does act as a kind of “safety net” and as an untouchable “territory of mutual understanding and trust,” which can well assist the restoration of mutual understanding and trust in other fields as needed. Further, by the way, the “salutary” function of joint anti-terror will additionally be dealt with in the context of the OSCE and Russia-NATO relations.

It’s apparently not so strong with London, however.

bq. Against this background, perhaps the *British alone still remain an unpleasant exception*, as they continue unjustifiably, I would say, obstinately keep the bilateral antiterrorist group at a standstill, and boycott contacts with the Federal Security Service of Russia, without which discussions of antiterrorist tasks lose all practical sense. *I am certain that this “infantile disease” of the British will eventually pass*, but some time is already lost, along with some mutually useful results already missed or unachieved. And perhaps it was London that needed these results to a greater degree.

_Ouch_.

U.S. to Ratify Additional Protocol

A few days ago , Bush “signed the instrument of ratification”:http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2008/dec/113550.htm for the Additional Protocol to the U.S. IAEA safeguards agreement which, some of you may recall, the Clinton administration signed in 1998.

Some of you may also recall that the administration has been all about urging everyone else to conclude additional protocols.

Anyway, according to the State Department, “ratification will be completed with deposit of the instrument with the IAEA” – an event which should happen sometime this coming week.

Lavrov: Come Back to Europe, America

I know at least one TW reader who’ll love (_not_) this line from “a recent essay”:http://www.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/e78a48070f128a7b43256999005bcbb3/bc2150e49dad6a04c325752e0036e93f?OpenDocument by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

bq. The United States is an integral part of European civilization. And now the time has probably come to return to Europe, that is, accept the soft European attitude to the world, shaped, inter alia, during the Cold War period not without the participation of America itself.

(And, yes, in this essay Lavrov too notes that the “Sochi Declaration”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1807/remember-sochi rulez.)

Remember Sochi?

In a “recent interview”:http://www.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/0/01B6FE302A9EF610C325752E003549D6, Russia’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Ryabkov said that the April 2008 “Sochi Strategic Framework Declaration”:http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2008/04/print/20080406-4.html “was conceived as a strategic framework for [U.S.-Russian] relations, not limited to Bush’s tenure.” He also noted that “[t]he Russian side intends to continue work precisely in the Sochi vein.”

Thought I’d highlight some points (aside from the obvious post-START agreement and missile defense cooperation) in the Declaration.

* We are fully committed to preventing the illicit trafficking or *destabilizing accumulations of conventional arms in order to contribute to regional and international security and stability*. The U.S. and Russia will cooperate to ensure that transfers of such weapons do not contribute to the development and enhancement of military capabilities which undermine these goals, as well as to deny conventional arms to terrorists.

* We will work together to address serious differences in areas where our policies do not coincide, including NATO expansion; *development of a package solution that helps restore the viability of the CFE regime and prompt ratification of the Adapted CFE Treaty* by all the States Parties; and certain military activities in space.

* We will cooperate in preparing and ensuring *a successful outcome of the 2010 NPT Review Conference*.

* We remain *committed to political and diplomatic efforts to find a negotiated solution guaranteeing that Iran’s nuclear program is exclusively for peaceful purposes*…Russia’s agreement to deliver nuclear fuel and take back spent fuel from Iran’s nuclear reactor at Bushehr is a *welcome step* that provides Iran a civil nuclear power capability without the need for the indigenous enrichment of uranium or reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel.

* We will sign in the near future and *work to bring into force the bilateral agreement between the Russian Federation and the United States* that was initialed on June 29, 2007. This agreement will create the necessary legal basis for our cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear energy and will permit the expansion of such cooperation.

* We will continue to expand and strengthen [the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism] and *fully implement the agreed program of work*.

Anyway, there is something for everyone. “Read it for yourself”:http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2008/04/print/20080406-4.html.

WMD Attack in 2013?

You all probably know that the first line in the “executive summary”:http://www.preventwmd.gov/world_at_risk_preface/ of the December “report”:http://www.preventwmd.gov/report/ from the “Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism”:http://www.preventwmd.gov/ states that, in the Commission’s opinion,

bq. unless the world community acts decisively and with great urgency, it is more likely than not that a weapon of mass destruction will be used in a terrorist attack somewhere in the world by the end of 2013.

What you may not know is that, as far as I can tell, that claim does not appear again in the report. In any case, there is certainly no methodology to explain where that number came from.

Weird.

J Rood On “Conventional Nuclear” Weapons

Confusion reigns in the “press pool”:http://www.state.gov/t/us/rm/113301.htm.

UNDER SECRETARY ROOD: With regard to the [START] treaty, I think one of the principal differences is over the scope of the treaty. For us in the United States, we would like a treaty which sets limits on strategic nuclear weapons. *Our colleagues in Russia would like a treaty with a broader scope than that, and they would like it to encompass conventional forces as well, conventional strategic forces*.

QUESTION: *Conventional nuclear?*

UNDER SECRETARY ROOD: Sorry?

QUESTION: *Conventional nuclear forces?*

UNDER SECRETARY ROOD: *That’s a contradictory term, conventional nuclear*. (Laughter.)

QUESTION: Well, there is such a – well, so is full tactical nuclear weapons. That’s what I’m talking about. That’s what I’m saying.

UNDER SECRETARY ROOD: *Tactical nuclear weapons form a nuclear weapon. I wouldn’t call it a conventional weapon.* But there are —

QUESTION: Are there long-range bombers, then, or something like that?

UNDER SECRETARY ROOD: No. *You can have strategic conventional weapons. Long-range bombers that drop a conventional weapon would be one.* Conventionally armed —

QUESTION: They’re talking about – that they’re talking about?

UNDER SECRETARY ROOD: Yes, yes.

QUESTION: Okay.

UNDER SECRETARY ROOD: *They’d like that sort of thing to become –conventionally armed missiles, other forms of conventional forces.* And whatever means they would be, they would be strategic.

QUESTION: *So when you say conventional, you mean not nuclear?*

UNDER SECRETARY ROOD: Yes.

Now that we got _that_ sorted out… Might I recommend “WMD411”:http://www.nti.org/f_WMD411/f_index.html?

Areva NPP Construction Vid

Via “Blogstroyka”:http://blogstroyka.rosatom.ru/2008/12/stroitelstvo-aes-olkiluoto-finlyandiya-2/, here is an awesome video on construction of the Olkiluoto unit 3, an “EPR”:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Pressurized_Reactor, in Finland.

New Moscow Defense Brief

The new issue of CAST’s “_Moscow Defense Brief_”:http://mdb.cast.ru/mdb/4-2008/ is out.

Some highlights:

* “Iskander the Great”:http://mdb.cast.ru/mdb/4-2008/item1/article1/

* “Russian Deliveries of Arms, Military Equipment, and Dual Use Items to Iran Since 2000”:http://mdb.cast.ru/mdb/4-2008/item7/article1/

* “Iran’s Foreign Policy in Central Asia”:http://mdb.cast.ru/mdb/4-2008/item2/article1/

* “Serdyukov’s Plan for Russian Military Reform”:http://mdb.cast.ru/mdb/4-2008/item6/article1/

The cover photo is a money shot. “*Check it out for yourself*”:http://mdb.cast.ru/mdb/4-2008/.

Arms Control Person(s) of the Year

‘Tis that time of year again. Among the nominees are:

* Jonas Gahr Støre

* Chris Hill

* Tom Fingar

and many more…

“*Vote here*”:http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001zeZbh-1CWb4zBk89qqQ24CJqfKDTu-TjRhMOJbQ3Sq-jOjhfdXCWvGSqtpwf26oM1KcjqKZ6QYVqO9Xjd_15haCIRVIFHJvn7HKyNBpIQQYdy1uOCp8MZpYbMplFNXUbjxyR905fZMnNacPNS9e28fO4qXfxDMXEDX1PgqnRui1Ga–fYqIx8Q.

I am, of course, “predictably biased”:http://cns.miis.edu/stories/081201_canwfz.htm towards the Central Asian legislators.