You all probably know that the first line in the “executive summary”:http://www.preventwmd.gov/world_at_risk_preface/ of the December “report”:http://www.preventwmd.gov/report/ from the “Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism”:http://www.preventwmd.gov/ states that, in the Commission’s opinion,
bq. unless the world community acts decisively and with great urgency, it is more likely than not that a weapon of mass destruction will be used in a terrorist attack somewhere in the world by the end of 2013.
What you may not know is that, as far as I can tell, that claim does not appear again in the report. In any case, there is certainly no methodology to explain where that number came from.
It’s not hard to divine where 2013 comes from. The report was delivered around the end of 2008, so the end of 2013 is five years. That’s the standard interval in NIC-type estimates, for example.
Maybe they used numerology? “13” is certainly a bad luck number…
I didn’t study the evidence but I don’t believe the Americans perpetrated 9/11 on themselves. However, this prophecy by a US government agency makes one feel uneasy.
“there is certainly no methodology to explain where that number came from.”
unless you are planning something like this, then you KNOW.