Author Archives: J-Pollack

The Pearl Harbor Golf Ball

It’s an oil platform with a giant golf ball on it. No, it’s an an oceangoing catamaran. No, wait, it’s the “Sea-Based X-Band Radar”:http://www.mda.mil/mdalink/pdf/sbx.pdf. Supposed to be “based in Adak, Alaska”:http://www.mda.mil/mdalink/html/sbx.html, it’s been hanging around sunny Hawaii for the longest time now.

“So said William Cole”:http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/20090222/COLUMNISTS32/902220354/-1 last month in the _Honolulu Advertiser_:

Since the “giant golfball” arrived here in 2006 from Corpus Christi, Texas, for a temporary stay, it has spent 307 cumulative days in Pearl Harbor, and 791 days out in the Pacific for testing or operations, according to the MDA.

Has it ever pulled into port in Adak?

“No,” the Missile Defense Agency said in an e-mailed response to questions from The Advertiser.

Did the SBX, as it is known, remain outside port in Adak?

“It loitered in the vicinity of Adak for two weeks in 2007,” MDA said.

Well, if you were a giant oceangoing catamaran, where would you prefer to be?

If North Korea’s launch “goes as planned”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2220/dprks-stay-clear-zones, SBX — as it is known — won’t have to roam far to get a good look. It can “take its time”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1938/weekend-project.

Best of Intentions, Ctd.

So do you recall the “U.S.-Israel MOU from back in January”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1837/psi-part-deux-red-sea-regatta?

bq. The United States will work with regional and NATO partners to address the problem of the supply of arms and related materiel and weapons transfers and shipments to Hamas and other terrorist organizations in Gaza, including through the Mediterranean, Gulf of Aden, Red Sea and eastern Africa, through improvements in existing arrangements or the launching of new initiatives to increase the effectiveness of those arrangements as they relate to the prevention of weapons smuggling to Gaza.

Based on “the publicized results so far”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1925/best-of-intentions, it didn’t amount to much. So if NATO isn’t going to stop Iranian-made rockets and other “locally strategic” weapons from reaching Gaza, who is?

Well, according to the Khartoum correspondent of _Al-Shuruq Al-Jadid_,* an Egyptian newspaper, _somebody_ started taking action back in January, destroying a convoy of arms-laden trucks on a mountain road near Port Sudan. That would be the United States:

bq. An official source has stated that the US fighter aircraft that carried out the raid were stationed in a number of regional countries. The sources believe it is highly likely that the fighter planes took off from Eritrea or Djibouti.

(The “Sudan Tribune”:http://sudantribune.com/spip.php?article30633 summarizes the story in English.)

But now comes CBS News, “crediting Israel”:http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2009/03/25/world/worldwatch/entry4892589.shtml?tag=main_home_webExclusive with the attack. The sourcing’s pretty sketchy, but the story’s not entirely implausible. And Israeli officials “didn’t deny it”:http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1074032.html.

As of today, _Al-Shuruq Al-Jadid_* has more on the story, but you have to wonder about some of it, really:

A fresh US raid on Eastern Sudan targeted trucks said to be loaded with weapons headed for Sinai in preparation for smuggling via tunnels into the Gaza Strip. According to informed Sudanese sources, the bombardment continued until yesterday morning.

Awad Mubarak, assistant secretary general of the Eastern Front, pointed out that bombardment of smuggling points started almost two months ago and that it continues until this time. He revealed that the raids have claimed the lives of 300 Sudanese people. According to Awad Mubarak, the sons of the Eastern parts engage in smuggling and trading in weapons to make money and address the problem of “lacking development.”

If fact, this latest report could be a sort of provocation, as _Al-Shuruq Al-Jadid_’s* Rafidah Yasin points out:

bq. Commenting on the reasons behind leaking such reports (on the US raids) after shrouding them in secrecy for a long time, an informed source in Khartoum pointed out that the Sudanese president is trying to mobilize Arab and Islamic public opinion and rally support against the ICC decision to arrest him on the charge of committing war crimes in Darfour, by giving the impression that the United States wishes to punish him for helping the HAMAS movement.

Would that the U.S. media were always equally frank about how they were being manipulated.

For whatever it’s worth, my money is on “CJTF-HOA”:http://www.hoa.africom.mil/. Call it an educated guess, nothing more.

[Update: U.S. Africa Command has “denied any involvement”:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/26/AR2009032601859.html. ABC News has a “single anonymous U.S. source”:http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2009/03/exclusive-three.html saying there have been three strikes so far, and attributing them all to Israel. The NY Times has “two anonymous U.S. sources”:http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/27/world/africa/27sudan.html. Regardless, the “head of the Shin Bet”:http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5ioi_0jtO9RjMwPNRoXNCndRPRq3gD977PPUO0 says that nothing has really made much of a dent in arms smuggling into Gaza.]

*[Update 2: The newspaper in question is more familiarly known as Al-Shorouk Al-Gadid.]

[Update 3: Here come the London papers. The Sunday Times has a version now, and remember, just because “Uzi Mahnaimi”:http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article5993093.ece reports it doesn’t mean it’s always completely false. Ash-Sharq Al-Awsat has a “version”:http://www.aawsat.com/english/news.asp?section=1&id=16239, too. But back here in America, Time Magazine’s version is “probably the most trustworthy”:http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1888352,00.html. Looks like my guess was wrong. Sorry, CJTF-HOA.]

The UK and Article VI

In case you missed it, the text of UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s speech on the 2010 NPT RevCon, Article VI obligations, nuclear energy, nonproliferation, and Iran is “here”:http://www.number10.gov.uk/Page18631. It covers much ground, so let me focus your attention on just a couple of highlights:

We will also host a Recognised Nuclear Weapon State Conference on nuclear disarmament issues and on confidence building measures, including the verification of disarmament.

For in the same way as we have tried to lead in challenging old orthodoxies by eliminating conventional weapons which caused harm to civilians, such as cluster munitions, I want to pledge that Britain will be at the forefront of the international campaign to prevent nuclear proliferation and to accelerate multilateral nuclear disarmament.

[snip]

If no single nuclear weapon state can be expected to disarm unilaterally, neither should it, but step by step we have to transform the discussion of nuclear disarmament from one of platitudes to one of hard commitment. We have also to help create a new international system to ensure non-nuclear states acquire the new sources of energy that they want to have.

[snip]

And let me be clear, we are not asking non-nuclear weapon states to refrain from proliferation while nuclear weapon states amass new weapons; we are asking them not to proliferate while nuclear weapon states take the steps to reduce their own arsenals in line with the Non-Proliferation Treaty’s requirements.

Now, you may be wondering, given the small scale of its own arsenal, what kind of steps short of complete nuclear disarmament could the UK take, if it is to be “at the forefront” of multilateral disarmament? Said Brown:

bq. Now Britain has cut the number of its nuclear warheads by 50% since 1997 and we are committed to retaining the minimum force necessary to maintain effective deterrence. For future submarines our latest assessment is that we can meet this requirement with 12 – not 16 – missile tubes as are on current submarines. In Britain our operationally available warheads now number fewer than 160 and the government keeps this number under constant review. If it is possible to reduce the number of UK warheads further, consistent with our national deterrence and with the progress of multilateral discussions, Britain will be ready to do so.

This struck “at least some observers”:http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/mar/17/foreignpolicy-gordon-brown1 as underwhelming. Indeed, there’s something of “Achilles and the tortoise”:http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/paradox-zeno/#AchTor about it. Given their overwhelmingly great share of warheads, the U.S. and Russia are the obvious candidates for further incremental arms reductions.

So might the UK (or for that matter, France) contemplate “reduction to zero”:http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/letters/article5525682.ece, perhaps in the context of Brown’s Recognized NWS Conference?

In that vein, now comes a “different, more exciting version”:http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/rachel_sylvester/article5962787.ece, courtesy of Rachel Sylvester in the _Times_ of London. She even gets somebody on the record:

Although the official line remains that Britain will retain its nuclear capability, the language in Whitehall has changed. One minister says that Trident is more useful as a “tool for global disarmament than for UK defence”. This means that even if the Government did want to abandon it eventually, it would be wrong, tactically, to announce such a plan yet. “The when and how of playing the card matters,” the minister explains. “Just dumping it gets you nothing. You do it when it will spur maximum disarmament by others.”

According to Baroness Williams of Crosby, the Liberal Democrat peer who advises the Prime Minister on nuclear proliferation, and was praised by him last week, Britain could use its nuclear weapons as a bargaining tool in the runup to the Non-Proliferation Treaty Review conference next spring. “Trident could be a crucial factor in reaching a serious international agreement,” she told me. “But to announce it now would be to chuck your queen away when you’ve only just started the chess game.”

Chuck your queen, indeed. It would be quite a statement if Britain were to disarm before, let’s say, “India”:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Raj.

Over to you, “Siddharth Varadrajan”:http://svaradarajan.blogspot.com/…

Weekend Project

According to an unnamed “South Korean military source,” “it takes a little while to fuel”:http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iZHXAkmISaqZKPlU6RhkfT2hi0JQ the “Unha-2”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1877/kwangmyongsong-kwangmyongsong-kwangmyongsong.

SEOUL (AFP) — North Korea is expected to set up its highly contentious rocket on the launch pad this weekend ahead of its expected firing in early April, a report said Wednesday.

[snip]

“It is highly likely that the rocket will emerge between March 28-31,” a South Korean military source told Yonhap news agency, adding it would take about three days to inject sufficient fuel.

Assuming that’s right, North Korea’s sorta-ICBM just doesn’t seem that threatening, does it?

Flying Killer Robots That See Through Walls

Sorry for the light pace of posting. Pressing matters have intervened. With Paul out of town, it’s just a case of bad timing. But I’ll take a break for a little shameless self-promotion.

Newspapers aren’t dead yet. Sunday’s _LA Times_ has a “good article by Greg Miller”:http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-pakistan-predator22-2009mar22,3,2931937,full.story that explains the stepped-up pace of UAV warfare in Pakistan since last August, and why “the U.S. Intelligence Community is pleased with the results”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1853/ic-on-north-korea-no-consensus-on-heu.

p{float: right; margin-left:0px;}. !/images/75.jpg!

Why bring this up in an arms-control blog? Simple. Every successful UAV strike in the deadly serious Game of Whac-A-Mole on Terrorism, or GWAMOT, places another question mark — preceded by the letters “WTF” — over the proposed “Conventional Trident Modification”:http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2008_09/LongRange. This would be a non-nuclear submarine-launched ballistic missile for employment against “fleeting targets” like high-value terrorists or suddenly detected WMD shipments. According to the “report”:http://www.publicpolicy.umd.edu/Fetter/2007-NAS-PGS.pdf of “a panel of the National Academies of Science”:http://www8.nationalacademies.org/cp/projectview.aspx?key=48754, the initial version of CTM would not be able to destroy or disable hardened military targets, so it’s more or less an SLBM with Osama’s name on it.

One of the advantages of using UAVs is that you can see what are you shooting at before you shoot. This won’t prevent all disasters and tragedies, but it helps. The advantage of CTM, by contrast, is that it can strike essentially anywhere in the world on no notice, even when the flying killer robots, with all their fancy sensors, aren’t in the neighborhood.

In other words, even if you lack much confidence about what the target is, CTM means you can annihilate it just the same. Among other things, this creates exceptional opportunities for any Central Asian hill chieftain with a satellite phone, a taste for “Uncle Sugar’s benjamins”:http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/6898075.stm, and a grudge against the neighboring village. Or perhaps I should say _an exceptional opportunity_, because after the results hit the newspapers, it’s liable to have been a one-time offer only.

(Bonus! Shameless other-promotion: Ted Postol gave a presentation addressing these matters to the aforementioned panel, but I’m having a hard time finding it for some reason. Bill Roggio tracks the robot war in Pakistan “very”:http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/03/us_launches_second_s.php “closely”:http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/12/us_strikes_in_two_vi.php. [Update: “More from Roggio”:http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/03/us_airstike_kills_8.php.] )

Here comes the self-promotion part: I had an “article”:http://thebulletin.metapress.com/content/0p2968683425r217/ in the Jan./Feb. _Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists_ exploring this and other aspects of the “conventional prompt global strike” proposal. The good news is, the misguided missile program doesn’t seem to be going anywhere fast.

In case you’re wondering, the reference to seeing through walls is drawn from an earlier _LA Times_ story, “here”:http://articles.latimes.com/2008/sep/12/world/fg-pakistan12, concerning sensors carried by newer Predator UAVs.

Final note: I hope that no one takes offense from my jocular tone when discussing this really grim stuff. It’s a coping mechanism. Now, just to lighten things up a little more, here’s a “musical bonus”:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_v468ptuXw.

Central Asia NWFZ

Here’s some “primary source action”:http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs//2009/sgsm12143.doc.htm, as Paul would say:

Secretary-General
SG/SM/12143
DC/3160
Department of Public Information • News and Media Division • New York

Secretary-General welcomes entry into force of historic treaty


on nuclear-weapon-free zone in central asia

The following statement was issued today by the Spokesperson for UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon:



The Secretary-General welcomes the entry into force of the Treaty on a Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone in Central Asia. Opened for signature on 8 September 2006, it has now been ratified by all five Central Asian States and will enter into force on 21 March 2009.



The Treaty on a Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone in Central Asia, for which the Government of Kyrgyzstan is the depositary, has five States parties: the Republic of Kazakhstan; the Kyrgyz Republic; the Republic of Tajikistan; Turkmenistan; and the Republic of Uzbekistan. The Treaty is of particular significance. This will be the first nuclear-weapon-free zone to be established in the northern hemisphere and will also encompass an area where nuclear weapons previously existed. It will also be the first nuclear-weapon-free zone that requires its parties to conclude with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and bring into force an Additional Protocol to their Safeguards Agreements with IAEA within 18 months after the entry into force of the Treaty, and to comply fully with the provisions of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT).



In order to ensure the effective implementation of the Treaty, the Secretary-General would like to urge the States concerned to address any outstanding issues that may affect its operation.



As the 2010 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons approaches, the Secretary-General trusts that the entry into force of the Treaty on a Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone in Central Asia will reinforce efforts to strengthen the global nuclear non-proliferation regime, underline the strategic and moral value of nuclear-weapon-free zones, as well as the possibilities for greater progress on a range of issues in the pursuit of a world free of nuclear weapons.

Props to “Global Security Newswire”:http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20090323_8513.php.

Undermining ABM, Part Deux

Paul’s “simply amazing post on the Bush OLC and the ABM Treaty”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1932/olc-on-the-abmt should be required reading. Wowza.

Out of sheer jealousy, I will now add my own $0.02. Neither the original memo nor the commentary in Paul’s post seems to mention it, but this ain’t the first time that treaty law has been bent like a pretzel to permit testing banned under ABM. The first time around, though, the law being creatively reinterpreted was the ABM Treaty itself.

From the _NY Times_ of “Feb. 17, 1987”:http://www.nytimes.com/1987/02/17/world/arms-debate-now-centers-on-abm-pact.html?sec=&spon=&&scp=7&sq=sofaer%20abm&st=cse:

The question of how to interpret the Antiballistic Missile Treaty has emerged as the central arms-control issue, affecting the Soviet-American negotiations in Geneva, relations between the United States and its allies and relations between the Administration and Congress.

The Reagan Administration has insisted that its interpretation, which would permit the United States to conduct extensive testing and development of new types of antimissile systems, is “legally correct.” The Administration is now considering whether to adopt its new interpretation formally to justify new “Star Wars” tests.

The Administration’s interpretation is disputed by all but one of the principal American negotiators of the treaty and has been privately criticized by some Government experts as well.

The critics say the Administration’s view is not supported by the negotiating record, which is classified as secret, and is not consistent with the explanations provided to the Senate when the treaty was approved in 1972.

The Administration’s interpretation has also been called into question by diplomatic exchanges between American and Soviet officials since the treaty was signed.

The chief American negotiator of the treaty, Gerard C. Smith, said the Administration’s interpretation amounts to “a breach of contract.” And Harold Brown, the former Defense Secretary and a member of the American team that negotiated the treaty, said the Reagan Administration’s stance “is an off-the-wall interpretation.”

Lieut. Gen. Royal B. Allison, retired, who representated the Joint Chiefs of Staff on the American negotiating team, also said that he believed the Administration view was wrong.

On the other hand, the Administration’s interpretation is now defended by Paul H. Nitze, the senior arms-control adviser to Secretary of State George P. Shultz and a former negotiator of the treaty, who has reversed his earlier position that the treaty is restrictive.

From “April 30, 1987”:http://www.nytimes.com/1987/04/30/world/ex-aide-says-reagan-got-flawed-advise-on-abm-s.html?n=Top/Reference/Times%20Topics/Subjects/T/Treaties:

A former State Department aide told Congress today that Administration officials ignored dissenting legal views and provided flawed advice to President Reagan in recommending the adoption of a broad interpretation of the Antiballistic Missile Treaty.

“The procedures were flawed, resulting in conclusions that are inaccurate,” said William J. Sims 3d, a lawyer who worked for Abraham D. Sofaer, the State Department legal adviser. Mr. Sims later worked for the general counsel of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency.

Mr. Sims said legal officials at the Defense Department and the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency prepared studies that supported the traditional, restrictive interpretation of the 1972 ABM Treaty. He said the studies were not considered until the issue was settled within the Administration. “The experts were left out,” he said. Mr. Sims said today that he resigned in August as a matter of principle over the ABM treaty issue.

[snip]

In the testimony today, William Sims appeared alongside Sidney N. Graybeal, a former negotiator who has helped prepare a classified review of the ABM treaty for the Pentagon.

Mr. Graybeal described the Administration’s new view as “a rewriting of what actually transpired.”

Mr. Sims described a hasty process in which hard-line political appointees disregarded the views of career civil servants with long experience on arms control issues.

According to Mr. Sims, Defense Department hard-liners “seemed to be in the driver’s seat.” “These officials,” he said, “offered the initial memo, we had to clamor to try to catch up.”

Mr. Sims said that as an aide to Mr. Sofaer he was unable to obtain a copy from the Pentagon of Mr. McNeill’s analysis. He said other important documents, such as an analysis of the treaty negotiating record by Mr. Graybeal, were not provided to the State Department by the Pentagon until after key decisions on interpreting the treaty were made.

Sofaer nevertheless issued his opinion on the testing of space-based defenses in May 1987. The Clinton Administration overturned it in July 1993.

Iran’s Equinox: FMP Comes Online

As visitors to the “White House website”:http://www.whitehouse.gov/Nowruz/ know, today is the Zoroastrian new year, No Ruz (“New Day”), which is celebrated by pretty much all Iranians. It marks the vernal equinox, the transition between seasons.

“According to the Iranian Students News Agency”:http://isna.ir/Isna/NewsView.aspx?ID=News-1307413&Lang=E, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) plans to mark the occasion by formally inaugurating the Fuel Manufacturing Plant (FMP) in Isfahan. It’s already partly operational:

The plant is in a good condition and is able to produce nuclear fuel assemblies for Iran’s Arak 40-megawatt research reactor which is to be launched within the next two or three years, [deputy AEOI chief Abdullah Solatasana] added.

The Plant is able to produce nuclear fuel assemblies for Iran’s Bushehr and Darkhovin power plants respectively with 1000 and 360 megawatts capability, Solatasana said.

The Head of (AEOI) Gholam Reza Aghazadeh has already declared nuclear fuel tablets for Arak reactor have been produced according to global standards.

(On that last point, see also paragraph 10 of “the latest IAEA report”:http://www.isisnucleariran.org/assets/pdf/IAEA_Report_Iran_Feb_2009.pdf.)

Bad News and Good News

So where does this transition take the situation? It makes matters worse in the medium run, but if the Iranians play it smart, it could also ease the immediate atmosphere of crisis.

The bad news is, the Arak reactor is ideally suited for plutonium production, “as Robert Einhorn has explained”:http://www.armscontrol.org/pressroom/2006/20061109_Einhorn. Preparing Arak’s natural uranium (NU) fuel at the FMP moves events closer to the “North Korea-style confrontation, ca. 1994”:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/10/AR2006101001285.html that hovers on the horizon.

The good news is, the same facility could be used to relax the already acute tensions over the enrichment of uranium. “Scott Kemp recently pointed this out”:http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/15/weekinreview/15SANGER.html to the _New York Times_:

If Iran wanted to ease jitters, it could do something very simple: turn its enriched uranium into reactor fuel.

“We’d hope they’d do it unilaterally, and maybe they will,” R. Scott Kemp, a nuclear expert at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University, said in an interview. So far, though, Iran has foregone that step and keeps the door open to further enrich a growing uranium supply.

Now, nobody with intact critical faculties really thinks the so-called fuel enrichment plant at Natanz was originally meant to make enriched reactor fuel, and if the idea is energy production, there’s certainly little point in operating it today. Russia supplies the fuel for Bushehr, and completing the Darkhovin reactor hasn’t been a high priority, “as Frank Pabian has pointed out”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2129/frank-pabian-on-iran-syria. In any case, Iran lacks the uranium to fuel either of these reactors. But going ahead anyway and turning low-enriched uranium (LEU) into fuel rods would materially demonstrate “what Iranian spokesmen”:http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9B01E0DD113EF936A15756C0A9609C8B63&n=Top%2FReference%2FTimes%20Topics%2FOrganizations%2FU%2FUnited%20Nations%20&scp=10&sq=m.a.%20mohammadi&st=cse “have repeatedly asserted”:http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C01E7DB1731F93BA35751C1A9609C8B63&scp=8&sq=m.a.%20mohammadi&st=cse “about the peaceful”:http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C0DE1DA143FF937A25755C0A9619C8B63&sec=&spon=&scp=9&sq=m.a.%20mohammadi&st=cse “nature of the”:http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/04/opinion/lweb04iran.html?scp=1&sq=m.a.%20mohammadi&st=cse “nuclear project”:http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/03/opinion/l03iran.html?scp=3&sq=m.a.%20mohammadi&st=cse. And that would buy time for everyone involved.

Cross-posted to “ArmsControlWonk.com”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2225/irans-equinox-fmp-comes-online. See the “comments at ACW”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2225/irans-equinox-fmp-comes-online#comment.

Two Stories To Take With A Grain of Salt

There’s much hubbub lately about a couple of things. One is a “completely unsourced article”:http://www.nzz.ch/nachrichten/international/wie_iran_syriens_nuklearbewaffnung_vorangetrieben_hat_1.2221863.html in the Swiss newspaper _Neue Zürcher Zeitung_ that makes a number of sensational claims about Syria’s -nuclear reactor at al-Kibar- “secret military pencil factory”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1881/update-from-the-pencil-factory. One of these claims is that Iran financed the facility and North Korea built it.

This is “not a new claim”:http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,561169,00.html, certainly not in the German-language press, where seemingly “unreplicable”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/283/word-of-the-day-geheimdienst “reporting”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1411/irans-scud-stunt on unconventional weapons in the Middle East often seems to crop up. _Sei vorsichtig._

[Update: “Jeff has got ahold of this story”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2228/ripping-off-ronen-bergman.]

The other thing is a “briefing at the CSIS website”:http://www.csis.org/component/option,com_csis_pubs/task,view/id,5337/ suggesting that Israel has conventionally armed ballistic missiles precise enough to knock out Iran’s nuclear facilities. Some of which are deeply buried, lest we forget.

Anything’s possible, right?

I’m going to go out on a limb to say that Israel almost certainly lacks this capability, because if they had it, it’s a very good bet they would have used it by now.

Wonk Pissing Contest

The “Iran breakout debate”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1890/more-breakoutology has officially become tiresome.

Anyone bothering to read this blog will remember “the instant analysis of the last IAEA report that ISIS put out”:http://isis-online.org/publications/iran/IAEA_Report_Analysis.pdf. It got “quite a bit of attention”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2193/iran-panic-induced-by-lousy-reporting at the time.

Some of you might also have seen “what Glaser and Kemp wrote in response”:http://www.princeton.edu/~rskemp/can-iran-make-a-bomb.pdf.

Anyone on the ISIS email list certainly knows, because ISIS “called them out today”:http://www.isisnucleariran.org/assets/pdf/Correcting_the_Record.pdf, for some reason.

Kemp and Glaser have now made a quick reply.

Knowledge doesn’t grow without criticism and debate. I’ve certainly learned a thing or two from this exchange. But some of it seems waaaay too close to being a determined defense of “a hasty analysis that grabbed headlines and caused confusion”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1889/sound-bites-man. This approach ill serves the cause of informing the public about science and policy issues affecting international security.

That is all.

Cross-posted to “ArmsControlWonk.com”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2223/wonk-pissing-contest. See the “comments at ACW”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2223/wonk-pissing-contest#comment.