Monthly Archives: April 2009

Transparency, North Korea-Style

Former U.S. State Department translator Tong Kim makes a few “pertinent observations”:http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/opinon/2009/04/167_42603.html about the recent decline in U.S. access to North Korea, and how it relates to Pyongyang’s special way of doing things:

Beginning January, several groups of private Americans with a varying degree of expertise on North Korea ― including Stephen Bosworth prior to his appointment as the top North Korea policy coordinator ― visited Pyongyang and told the North Koreans about their views of what’s coming from the new administration vis-a-vis North Korea. Their message was the new administration would be serious to resolve the issues of mutual concern bilaterally with Pyongyang and multilaterally through the existing six-party talks.

The North Koreans turned down Ambassador Bosworth’s plan to visit Pyongyang, which was part of his initial consultations with the participants in the multilateral talks for denuclearization. Bosworth’s Asia trip immediately followed Secretary Hillary Clinton’s visit to the region, during which she had sent mixed signals to Pyongyang. Although the North did not publicly react to some of the secretary’s displeasing remarks, the North Koreans did not find a clear departure from the Bush Administration’s policy other than a shift in approach ― with the appointment of a senior envoy and giving more weight to direct diplomacy.

Conversely, the North stepped up provocative threats on South Korea and imposed new demands that the United States should treat it as a nuclear weapons state and that it should first normalize its relationship with the DPRK before denuclearization. The North also lowered the level of its interlocutors for most of the American visitors, from vice foreign minister to the director-general of U.S. affairs ― from Kim Gye-gwan to Li Geun.

An aside: Bosworth recently “hinted at this shift”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1947/batman-begins. We continue with Tong Kim:

bq. It is also notable that Pyongyang denied a recent American visitor group access to the Yongbyon nuclear complex: the group included Siegfried Hecker, a well-known nuclear authority, who had visited the site five times before. Hecker’s first visit was allowed because the North wanted to prove its nuclear capability, which was eventually demonstrated by a nuclear test.

Another aside: Prior to the release of the operating records and the start of disablement operations, “SIGINT”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1866/just-a-little-bit-more-information (as in, you know, “Sig” Hecker) was the primary form of transparency at Yongbyon after the collapse of the Agreed Framework.

Tong Kim:

bq. The denial of access does not indicate possible renewed nuclear activity. But the North may want the world to speculate on what is or what is not going on there. Pyongyang knows how to play the cutoff of information to the outside world or the effect of ambiguity to its advantage.

That seems about right.

More About Iran’s FMP

In case the “pictures”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1981/inside-irans-fmp aren’t enough, here are words to go with.

A number of claims about Iran’s Fuel Manufacturing Plant (FMP) can be gleaned from the Iranian press. According to “Mehr News”:http://www.mehrnews.com/en/NewsDetail.aspx?NewsID=857835:

bq. The FMP will produce 10 tons of nuclear fuel annually to feed the 40-megawatt Arak heavy water reactor and 30 tons for light water reactors such as the Bushehr power plant and other plants that Iran intends to build.

And according to an “earlier ISNA report”:http://isna.ir/Isna/NewsView.aspx?ID=News-1307413&Lang=E, there will be multiple process lines to handle the different needs of the LWRs and the Arak HWR:

Solatsana also said all stages for producing nuclear fuel assemblies are carried out by Iranian experts and added Isfahan’s FMP has designed different tablet producing lines for different reactors.

Arak reactor needs 150 nuclear fuel assemblies.

As if to address the concerns raised “here”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1931/irans-equinox-fuel-manufacturing-plant-comes-online and more lately in the “news media”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1979/pk-in-the-lat, ISNA quotes an “AEOI official”:http://isna.ir/ISNA/NewsView.aspx?ID=News-1315373&Lang=E, who assures us that, yes, the LEU will be made into LWR fuel:

The deputy head of the organization, Mohammad Saeedi also said Iran’s nuclear advancement serves the nation’s interests and on the other hand allays the West concerns by proving that its uranium enrichment aims to provide fuel for reactors.

Production of nuclear fuel assemblies in Isfahan’s Fuel Manufacturing Plant (FMP) must have ended the West ambiguities on Iran’s fuel cycle because it showed that the final purpose of Iran’s enrichment activities is to produce fuel assemblies for research and electricity-generating reactors of the country, he added.

We’re all looking forward to that.

Until that day arrives, here’s some recommended reading on the subject from “Ivanka Barzashka and Ivan Oelrich”:http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2009/04/1106.php at FAS, plus “Geoff Forden”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2254/on-the-technology-campaign-trail at ACW.

You may also wish to review “our”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1981/inside-irans-fmp “own”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1979/pk-in-the-lat “humble”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1976/the-festival-of-unenriched-fuel “offerings”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1935/another-on-arak “here”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1933/arakit-aint-no-natanz “at TW”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1931/irans-equinox-fuel-manufacturing-plant-comes-online.

Inside Iran’s FMP

p{float: center; margin-left:0px;}. !/images/86.jpg!:http://isna.ir/ISNA/PicView.aspx?Pic=Pic-1314002-1&Lang=E

Granted, a fuel fabrication facility is not the sexiest element of the nuclear fuel cycle, but we all thrive on novelty, don’t we? So here, in the tradition of “Iranian National Nuclear Technology Day”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1976/the-festival-of-unenriched-fuel events of years past, is what you’ve been waiting for.

Click on a small image for a larger view.


!http://www.totalwonkerr.com/images/87.jpg!:http://www.totalwonkerr.com/images/80.jpg !http://www.totalwonkerr.com/images/96.jpg!:http://www.totalwonkerr.com/images/95.jpg
!http://www.totalwonkerr.com/images/91.jpg!:http://www.totalwonkerr.com/images/90.jpg !http://www.totalwonkerr.com/images/93.jpg!:http://www.totalwonkerr.com/images/92.jpg

Together, the shots above give the best overall view of what appears to be -the main hall of- _one of at least two large halls in_ the Fuel Manufacturing Plant (FMP). As you can see, there’s still a great deal of open space where equipment has yet to be installed. And “there are”:/images/94.jpg “a number of”:/images/82.jpg “close-up”:/images/83.jpg “shots”:/images/84.jpg “as well”:/images/85.jpg. “This one”:/images/89.jpg looks like an unfinished glovebox, doesn’t it?

In the links above, I’ve singled out pictures that display the installed equipment. So as not to exaggerate my own ability to interpret them, I present them without further comment. Readers are encouraged to dive in.

Of course, that’s not all. Photo collections can be found at IRNA “here”:http://www5.irna.ir/View/FullStory/Photo/?NewsId=427743, “here”:http://www5.irna.ir/View/FullStory/Photo/?NewsId=427775, and “here”:http://www5.irna.ir/NewsMedia/Photo/Larg_Pic/2009%5C4%5C9%5Cimg633749015527343750.jpg. ISNA has pictures “here”:http://isna.ir/ISNA/NewsView.aspx?ID=News-1314717&Lang=E. A few shots from AP, Reuters, and AFP appear in this “Yahoo! News”:http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/slideshow/photo//090409/481/dc20db4909f94b5c85e8838a10d38eff/ collection. The Presidential website has only some “pictures from the ceremony”:http://president.ir/en/?ArtID=15694.

Update: an “ACW reader”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2255/fmp-comes-alive#comment has flagged “another photo collection”:http://www.farsnews.com/imgrep.php?nn=8801200780, this one from Fars News. The image of the hall now shown in the upper right quadrant, above, is drawn from this collection.

Further update: still more wire photos can be seen at daylife, an “aggregator”:http://www.daylife.com/topic/fuel_manufacturing_plant/photos/1/grid “site”:http://www.daylife.com/topic/fuel_manufacturing_plant/photos/2/grid. Of special interest is this Reuters “shot of a control panel”:http://www.daylife.com/photo/04kr0eMgIi5KD?q=fuel+manufacturing+plant.

Knock yourselves out, folks!

Department of Awesome Predictions on N Korea

Remember the Rumsfeld Commission “report”:http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/bm-threat.htm from almost 11 years ago?

This was great:

bq. There is evidence that North Korea is working hard on the Taepo Dong 2 (TD-2) ballistic missile. The status of the system’s development cannot be determined precisely. Nevertheless, the ballistic missile test infrastructure in North Korea is well developed. Once the system is assessed to be ready, *a test flight could be conducted within six months of a decision to do so. If North Korea judged the test to be a success, the TD-2 could be deployed rapidly. It is unlikely the U.S. would know of such a decision much before the missile was launched. This missile could reach major cities and military bases in Alaska and the smaller, westernmost islands in the Hawaiian chain. Light-weight variations of the TD-2 could fly as far as 10,000 km, placing at risk western U.S. territory in an arc extending northwest from Phoenix, Arizona, to Madison, Wisconsin.* These variants of the TD-2 would require additional time to develop and would likely require an additional flight test.

Even better:

bq. A new strategic environment now gives emerging ballistic missile powers the capacity, through a combination of domestic development and foreign assistance, to acquire the means to strike the U.S. within *about five years* of a decision to acquire such a capability.

“Slap of reality.”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1968/unha-2td-2-launch-epic-fail

PK in the LAT

Borzou Daragahi and Ramin Mostaghim quoted me in the “LAT:”:http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iran-nuclear10-2009apr10,0,6613541.story

Turning its low-enriched uranium into reactor fuel could reassure the West that Iran has no intention of further refining its stockpile. But plutonium extracted from the spent fuel from Arak could be used for a bomb. That’s only if Iran were to build a reprocessing facility, which it says it won’t do.

“They don’t have one and say they’re not interested in one,” said Paul Kerr, an arms control expert at the Congressional Research Service. “*The reactor is under safeguard. They can’t [create weapons-grade plutonium] without getting caught.”*

Overall, it’s a good story, but I feel the need to point out that it is more accurate to say that the reactor “will be under safeguards” or is “subject to safeguards.”

Heavy Metal Name Diagram

Since Josh has “left this blog to me”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1977/let-them-eat-rockets for an undetermined period, you get a silly diagram, courtesy of FoKerr _SLK_

!/images/79.jpg!

You can download the large version “here.”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/file_download/21

Let Them Eat Rockets

If you only read one thing about North Korea this week, Dan Sneider’s “op-ed”:http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/09/opinion/09iht-edsneider.html in the _IHT_ would be a pretty gosh darn good choice.

Enjoy. I’m signing off for awhile now.

The Festival of Unenriched Fuel

Notwithstanding an “earlier report”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1931/irans-equinox-fuel-manufacturing-plant-comes-online that the event would take place by the New Year, Iranian “news”:http://isna.ir/Isna/NewsView.aspx?ID=News-1314002&Lang=E “media”:http://www5.irna.ir/En/View/FullStory/?NewsId=424858&IdLanguage=3 now report that the Fuel Manufacturing Plant at Isfahan will be ceremonially inaugurated tomorrow, National Nuclear Technology Day.

The FMP is already partly operational, making natural uranium pellets for fuel assemblies, destined for the Arak reactor. So call it the “Festival of Unenriched Fuel”:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passover.

Kuwait’s news service also “reports”:http://www.kuna.net.kw/NewsAgenciesPublicSite/ArticleDetails.aspx?id=1988859&Language=en that “the production of a new generation of centrifuges” will be announced, presumably at Natanz. Does this mean that the “carbon-fiber”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1923/rimz-of-mass-destruction models exhibited last year at PFEP are now in production? We’ll see.

So what’s the point?

As in the past two years, the anniversary provides an occasion for President Ahmadinejad — now entering the homestretch of his re-election campaign — “to drape himself in the colors of nuclear patriotism”:http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8801190931. One can only hope for the traditional “open-source”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1851/iran-centrifuge-components “intel”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1870/more-on-the-ahmadinejad-visit-to-natanz “bonanza”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1901/ir2-and-ir3-scoops.

_Update: I missed this, the true “intel bonanza”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1849/ir-2s-on-display link._

Speaking of traditional nuclear holidays, the 11th “Yom-e Takbeer”:http://pkpolitics.com/2008/05/28/discuss-youm-e-takbeer-10th-nuclear-anniversary/, or Pakistani Day of Greatness, is coming up in a month or so. It commemorates the nuclear tests of 1998. Perhaps greatness is not “what comes to mind”:http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/05/magazine/05zardari-t.html, but symbols are funny that way: they lack substance.

(Hey, FCNL, why aren’t these dates on the “calendar”:http://www.fcnl.org/NuclearCalendar/?)

Coincidentally, representatives of the 5+1 group — the permanent members of the Security Council, plus Germany — will be “meeting tomorrow”:http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/04/08/burns_to_p51 in London. Before deciding to come out with any premature announcements, here’s another date they might ponder: Iran’s “election day”:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_presidential_election,_2009, June 12. With the recalcitrant incumbent boasting that Iran’s “nuclear case is closed”:http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8801191061, this might not be the best moment to supply him with election propaganda. Timing is everything…

Those Wily NORKs

Don’t place any big bets just yet, but it seems increasingly likely that “there never was”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1970/kwangmyongsong-epic-fail-or-epic-bs a Kwangmyongsong-2.

If you haven’t been paying attention, check out “Geoff”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2245/dprk-ground-truth “Forden’s”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2244/dprk-systemic-vs-technological-failures “analysis”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2247/dprk-unha-2-trajectory-constrained. Looks kinda like an IRBM test, and a successful one, at that.

Update: It might be more accurate to say “a partly successful ICBM test.” It certainly “looks like”:http://tinyurl.com/unha2 a three-stage rocket, no?

At least “some people”:http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0407/p06s07-woap.html in South Korea think so. But just try to prove it…

So why might North Korea undertake such a ruse? Well, under UNSCR 1718, North Korea cannot legally test a ballistic missile. But under the “Outer Space Treaty”:http://www.fas.org/nuke/control/ost/text/space1.htm, they can launch a satellite:

bq. Outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, shall be free for exploration and use by all States without discrimination of any kind, on a basis of equality and in accordance with international law, and there shall be free access to all areas of celestial bodies.

Hey, did anyone notice that North Korea “acceded”:http://www.oosa.unvienna.org/oosatdb/showTreatySignatures.do to the Outer Space Treaty and the Registration Convention on March 10, 2009?

How about that?

Update: “More from Forden”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2249/dprk-icbm-or-space-launch-vehicle.

Gates Budget Briefing Highlights

The “envelope, please”:http://www.defenselink.mil/speeches/speech.aspx?speechid=1341…

The winners:

4. To better protect our forces and those of our allies in theater from ballistic missile attack, we will add $700 million to field more of our most capable theater missile defense systems, specifically the terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) System and Standard Missile 3 (SM-3) programs.

5. We will also add $200 million to fund conversion of six additional Aegis ships to provide ballistic missile defense capabilities.

The runner-ups:

8. With regard to our nuclear and strategic forces:

* In FY10, we will begin the replacement program for the Ohio class ballistic missile submarine program.

* We will not pursue a development program for a follow-on Air Force bomber until we have a better understanding of the need, the requirement, and the technology.

* We will examine all of our strategic requirements during the Quadrennial Defense Review, the Nuclear Posture Review, and in light of Post-START arms control negotiations.

And the losers:

Fourth, in the area of missile defense:

* We will restructure the program to focus on the rogue state and theater missile threat.

* We will not increase the number of current ground-based interceptors in Alaska as had been planned. But we will continue to robustly fund continued research and development to improve the capability we already have to defend against long-range rogue missile threats – a threat North Korea’s missile launch this past weekend reminds us is real.

* We will cancel the second airborne laser (ABL) prototype aircraft. We will keep the existing aircraft and shift the program to an R&D effort. The ABL program has significant affordability and technology problems and the program’s proposed operational role is highly questionable.

* We will terminate the Multiple Kill Vehicle (MKV) program because of its significant technical challenges and the need to take a fresh look at the requirement.

* Overall, the Missile Defense Agency program will be reduced by $1.4 billion.

This seems to be the Democratic pattern; the Clinton administration also boosted theater missile defense at the expense of national missile defense.