Russian President Dmitry Medvedev tells America “what concerns him”:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/30/AR2009033002443.html:
* Euro-GMD.
* NATO expansion.
* Lack of Adapted CFE ratification.
He also tells America what he likes:
* The Sochi “roadmap.”
* The resumption of arms reduction talks.
* “Collective solutions to the problems facing Afghanistan,” whatever that means.
* Creating a new international reserve currency.
Well, two or three out of seven is a start.
Not mentioned anywhere: Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.
“Better hit that reset button some more”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1926/skepsis.
Minas Morgul? The palantir is under the spire at the top.
“According to Mr. Google”:http://translate.google.com, the classical Greek word _skepsis_ is also the preferred Russian term for “skepticism.”
You can color me скептический after reading “this article in today’s Post”:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/17/AR2009031703033.html.
As President Obama seeks to recast relations with Russia and persuade it to help contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions, he must win over leaders who are deeply suspicious of U.S. intentions and who have long been reluctant to damage what they consider a strategic partnership with Iran. But the Kremlin has indicated it is willing to explore a deal with Washington, and analysts say it may be more open to new sanctions against Iran than expected.
The Obama administration has all but decided not to make a new push for sanctions until after it tries engaging Iran diplomatically and improving ties with Moscow, according to administration officials and Russia analysts. If the overture to Iran fails, as many expect, administration officials believe they will be able to make a stronger case for sanctions to Russian leaders they hope will be more invested in a new relationship with the United States.
Russian support is crucial on nonproliferation issues, particularly Iran. It’s really, really difficult to imagine this issue being resolved peacefully if Moscow doesn’t play a constructive role, so it’s encouraging to see someone “trying to win the Russian side over”:http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1068299.html, “for a change”:http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6658633.stm. But let’s not imagine that an American charm offensive could suddenly melt hearts in “Minas Morgul”:http://www.tuckborough.net/fortress.html#Minas%20Morgul or instill a sense of urgency that did not exist before.
Reaching an understanding on really tough sanctions will be hard. After control of energy supplies, “arms sales”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1911/playing-the-gargoyle-card and “nuclear sales”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1836/bushehr-update are the core of Russian influence abroad, and Russia hasn’t escaped the global economic crisis, either. There is also some risk of, ahem, _overcharging_ the agenda, where “strategic arms talks”:http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/columnists/pavel-podvig/formulating-the-next-us-russian-arms-control-agreement are already at “center stage”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1896/like-shooting-monkeys-in-a-barrel.
After years of butting heads, seducing the Kremlin away from an “oppositional”:http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/05/world/europe/05kyrgyz.html, “zero-sum view of NATO”:http://www.kremlin.ru/eng/speeches/2008/07/15/1121_type82912type84779_204155.shtml that seems to pay dividends at home may be too much even for America’s intrepid Secretary of State, but I wish her good luck. Better press that “reset button”:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GdLClHAMB0 a few more times, just to be sure.
_Note for the perplexed: if you don’t recognize the building in the photo at the top, it’s the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs._
So says the “White House”:http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/President-Obama-Announces-Key-State-Department-Appointment/:
THE WHITE HOUSE
Office of the Press Secrectary
__________________________________________________________
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE March 17, 2009
President Obama Announces Key State Department Appointment
WASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, President Obama announced his intent to nominate Rose Gottemoeller for Assistant Secretary of State for Verification and Compliance.
President Obama said, “Turning the tide on the threat of nuclear weapons and strengthening the international non-proliferation regime is one of the great and urgent challenges of our time. Rose Gottemoeller’s extraordinary commitment and expertise make her a valuable addition to the State Department and my national security team as we renew American diplomacy to create a more secure world.”
Rose Gottemoeller Biography:
Rose Gottemoeller served as Director of the Carnegie Moscow Center from January 2006 to December 2008. Currently, she has resumed her position as Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment, where she holds a joint appointment with the Russian and Eurasian Program and the Global Policy Program. A specialist on defense and nuclear issues in Russia and the other former Soviet states, Gottemoeller’s research at the Endowment focused on issues of nuclear security and stability, non-proliferation, and arms control.
Before joining the Endowment in October 2000, Gottemoeller was Deputy Undersecretary for Defense Nuclear Non-proliferation in the U.S. Department of Energy. Previously, she served as the Department’s Assistant Secretary for Non-proliferation and National Security, with responsibility for all non-proliferation cooperation with Russia and the Newly Independent States. She first joined the Department in November 1997 as Director of the Office of Non-proliferation and National Security. Prior to the Energy Department, Gottemoeller served for three years as Deputy Director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. From 1993 to 1994, she served on the staff of the National Security Council in the White House as Director for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia Affairs, with responsibility for denuclearization in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus. She has taught courses at Georgetown University on Soviet military policy and Russian security in Eurasia.
Update: We’re all still waiting to hear if “this idea”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1904/rise-and-shine prevails.
Here’s some more about the “S-300PMU1 (Gargoyle) not going to Iran”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1910/dvorkin-weighs-in-three-things-not-to-do. Or, if you prefer, С-300ПМУ1 not going to Иран.
According to “Interfax”:http://treli.ru/newstext.mhtml?Part=3&PubID=25315, the delivery of advanced air defenses from Russia to Iran may be postponed indefinitely. Whatever that means:
Implementation of the multimillion dollar contract for the delivery of Russian S-300 surface-to-air missile systems to Iran, which was concluded more than three years ago, may be postponed indefinitely. Experts believe that the primary deterring factor here is the emerging opportunity for improving relations between Russia and the US after the arrival of the new administration.
So… indefinitely, maybe, for now. Depending.
Belated addition: a “musical bonus”:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kn481KcjvMo.
Vladimir Dvorkin, former -commander- _Director of the Research Institute_ of the Soviet Strategic Rocket Forces, is “quoted by Interfax”:http://www.militarynews.ru/ cautioning against the following bad things:
* Shooting down a North Korean space launch
“I subscribe to the view that North Korea may try to launch a delivery vehicle to put a satellite in orbit. It [the launch] will also serve as a test of an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching Alaska.”
“As far as we are aware, Japan intends to take measures which will include the use of Standard-3 sea-based interceptor missiles,” he said, warning that such developments could lead to a “serious conflict situation.” Dvorkin said that American and Japanese counteractions could “cause China concern.”
* Underestimating Iran
Discussing Iran’s missile program Dvorkin said: “It has always been clear to me that Iran’s missile program is underestimated. Iran stopped using outdated missile technologies a long time ago.” In his view, “it is quite clear” that Iran is capable of building a missile reaching all of Europe.
Dvorkin suggested that Iran was close to building a nuclear weapon, Interfax-AVN said. He was quoted as saying that he “saw no reason why Iranian scientists should not be able to do it; perhaps they are short of highly-enriched weapons-grade uranium.”
“If Iran obtains a nuclear weapon it may trigger a snowball effect,” with the number of countries seeking a nuclear weapon going up sharply, a “total collapse” of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and “not just a regional but a global catastrophe,” Dvorkin said.
* Selling advanced air defenses to Iran
Asked to comment on media reports about an alleged deal on the supply of Russian S-300 air defense systems to Iran, Dvorkin said he wasn’t aware of “any such contract” but warned that giving Iran S-300 could cause serious tensions in Moscow’s relations with both Israel and the USA, Interfax-AVN said.
He is also quoted as suggesting that U.S.-Russian strategic arms talks will be complicated by the U.S. warhead upload capability.
Related items:
* Ted Postol proposes replacing existing missile defenses with “UAV-based boost-phase systems”:http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/12/opinion/12postol.html?_r=1&ref=opinion. As I read it, these systems ideally would be based in Russia.
* Richard Weitz reviews the the “S-300 question”:http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?id=3425.
Awhile back, in the umpteenth post on special envoys, “I wrote”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1882/narrowing-the-gulf:
Somebody wake me when it’s “Rose Gottemoeller’s”:http://www.carnegieendowment.org/experts/index.cfm?fa=expert_view&expert_id=101 turn.
And it didn’t take too long! Nicholas Kralev has the story at the “Washington Times”:http://washingtontimes.com/news/2009/mar/09/us-russia-aim-to-cut-nukes/?page=2, concerning the possibility of appointing an “ambassador-at-large for strategic negotiations with Russia.”
One name that has been mentioned for a senior position in the field is Rose Gottemoeller, who is expected to become assistant secretary of state for arms control…
Trust me, I deserve no credit for this prediction. It’s a no-brainer. Let’s hope the idea prevails.
Tehran, 25 February: Iran has confirmed its interest in the international uranium enrichment centre in Angarsk, but insists on retaining its own uranium enrichment programme, Vice-President Gholamreza Aqazadeh has told Russian journalists.
“We have given an affirmative reply long ago,” he said, answering a question about Iran’s interest in participating in this project. “On condition that this cooperation will not create obstacles for us in achieving our aims,” he added.
Aqazadeh recalled that Iran has its own enrichment plant. “But this is not an impediment (for taking part in the international enrichment centre),” he said. He added that Iran has a large nuclear energy development programme.
Aqazadeh positively evaluated the progress in implementing the construction project of the first Iranian nuclear power plant Bushehr. “Everything now looks very effective,” he said, commenting on the results of visiting the construction site.
Speaking about possible projects with Russia, he said that in this “everything depends on the Russian side”. “Iran may be a good market for Russian industry,” Aqazadeh added.
He said that Russia and Iran plans to set up a joint venture to use the Bushehr nuclear plant after its launch, and “this is a great step for our further cooperation”.
This is a couple of months old, but what the hey. Click “here”:http://www.mnweekly.ru/comment/20081114/55356778.html to see a picture that’s worth at least two words. It’s even oriented properly, i.e., westwards.
Russia will not look on indifferently while the United States deploys the third positioning component of its missile defense shield in Eastern Europe. This was the unmistakable message from Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in his no-nonsense state-of-the-nation address recently.
(Paul, where is the label for “juvenilia”?)
The inevitable “musical bonus”:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZThquH5t0ow.
_Paul Says:_ There is a label for “silly,” but we can always create a new one.
Rosatom’s Sergei Kiriyenko has “told the Russian media”:http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-02-05-voa37.cfm that the Bushehr reactor will start up in 2009.
This echoes a “statement made a few weeks ago”:http://english.rednet.cn/c/2009/01/15/1690587.htm by Iran’s ambassador to Russia.
Kiriyenko adds that he’ll visit Bushehr at some point this month.
The “PONI blog”:http://forums.csis.org/poni/ “points out”:http://forums.csis.org/poni/?p=51 a “story by Tim Reid in the Times of London”:http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article5654836.ece alleging that the Obama administration is seeking a bilateral treaty with Russia to cut nuclear arsenals to 1,000 warheads per side.
Whoa up there.
British journalism is sort of like British dentistry; the standards aren’t exactly the same as in America, where things aren’t necessarily ideal to start with.
Reid’s entire story hangs on the following anonymous quote:
“We are going to re-engage Russia in a more traditional, legally binding arms reduction process,” an official from the Administration said. “We are prepared to engage in a broader dialogue with the Russians over issues of concern to them. Nobody would be surprised if the number reduced to the 1,000 mark for the post-Start treaty.”
(He couldn’t even find a _senior_ administration official?)
In America, we usually like our anonymous sources in pairs. And we often like to see them called “senior administration officials,” or to come with some other assurance from the reporter that they possibly might know whereof they speak.
So what have we really got? A single, unnamed person who says that “no one would be surprised” if future talks with the Russians — long rumored to have minds of their own, but that’s mere speculation — were someday to reach a particular result. Which is not even stated to be the Administration’s actual objective. After all, it takes time to figure these things out. Key personnel have to be in place, and so forth. And the Administration is all of two weeks old.
OK, this is a lot of keystrokes to waste on a question that’s probably far less weighty than it’s made out to be. Long story short, don’t believe everything you see on the Internets.
