Category Archives: Iran

Inside Iran’s FMP

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p{float: center; margin-left:0px;}. !/images/86.jpg!:http://isna.ir/ISNA/PicView.aspx?Pic=Pic-1314002-1&Lang=E

Granted, a fuel fabrication facility is not the sexiest element of the nuclear fuel cycle, but we all thrive on novelty, don’t we? So here, in the tradition of “Iranian National Nuclear Technology Day”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1976/the-festival-of-unenriched-fuel events of years past, is what you’ve been waiting for.

Click on a small image for a larger view.


!http://www.totalwonkerr.com/images/87.jpg!:http://www.totalwonkerr.com/images/80.jpg !http://www.totalwonkerr.com/images/96.jpg!:http://www.totalwonkerr.com/images/95.jpg
!http://www.totalwonkerr.com/images/91.jpg!:http://www.totalwonkerr.com/images/90.jpg !http://www.totalwonkerr.com/images/93.jpg!:http://www.totalwonkerr.com/images/92.jpg

Together, the shots above give the best overall view of what appears to be -the main hall of- _one of at least two large halls in_ the Fuel Manufacturing Plant (FMP). As you can see, there’s still a great deal of open space where equipment has yet to be installed. And “there are”:/images/94.jpg “a number of”:/images/82.jpg “close-up”:/images/83.jpg “shots”:/images/84.jpg “as well”:/images/85.jpg. “This one”:/images/89.jpg looks like an unfinished glovebox, doesn’t it?

In the links above, I’ve singled out pictures that display the installed equipment. So as not to exaggerate my own ability to interpret them, I present them without further comment. Readers are encouraged to dive in.

Of course, that’s not all. Photo collections can be found at IRNA “here”:http://www5.irna.ir/View/FullStory/Photo/?NewsId=427743, “here”:http://www5.irna.ir/View/FullStory/Photo/?NewsId=427775, and “here”:http://www5.irna.ir/NewsMedia/Photo/Larg_Pic/2009%5C4%5C9%5Cimg633749015527343750.jpg. ISNA has pictures “here”:http://isna.ir/ISNA/NewsView.aspx?ID=News-1314717&Lang=E. A few shots from AP, Reuters, and AFP appear in this “Yahoo! News”:http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/slideshow/photo//090409/481/dc20db4909f94b5c85e8838a10d38eff/ collection. The Presidential website has only some “pictures from the ceremony”:http://president.ir/en/?ArtID=15694.

Update: an “ACW reader”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2255/fmp-comes-alive#comment has flagged “another photo collection”:http://www.farsnews.com/imgrep.php?nn=8801200780, this one from Fars News. The image of the hall now shown in the upper right quadrant, above, is drawn from this collection.

Further update: still more wire photos can be seen at daylife, an “aggregator”:http://www.daylife.com/topic/fuel_manufacturing_plant/photos/1/grid “site”:http://www.daylife.com/topic/fuel_manufacturing_plant/photos/2/grid. Of special interest is this Reuters “shot of a control panel”:http://www.daylife.com/photo/04kr0eMgIi5KD?q=fuel+manufacturing+plant.

Knock yourselves out, folks!

PK in the LAT

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Borzou Daragahi and Ramin Mostaghim quoted me in the “LAT:”:http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iran-nuclear10-2009apr10,0,6613541.story

Turning its low-enriched uranium into reactor fuel could reassure the West that Iran has no intention of further refining its stockpile. But plutonium extracted from the spent fuel from Arak could be used for a bomb. That’s only if Iran were to build a reprocessing facility, which it says it won’t do.

“They don’t have one and say they’re not interested in one,” said Paul Kerr, an arms control expert at the Congressional Research Service. “*The reactor is under safeguard. They can’t [create weapons-grade plutonium] without getting caught.”*

Overall, it’s a good story, but I feel the need to point out that it is more accurate to say that the reactor “will be under safeguards” or is “subject to safeguards.”

The Festival of Unenriched Fuel

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Notwithstanding an “earlier report”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1931/irans-equinox-fuel-manufacturing-plant-comes-online that the event would take place by the New Year, Iranian “news”:http://isna.ir/Isna/NewsView.aspx?ID=News-1314002&Lang=E “media”:http://www5.irna.ir/En/View/FullStory/?NewsId=424858&IdLanguage=3 now report that the Fuel Manufacturing Plant at Isfahan will be ceremonially inaugurated tomorrow, National Nuclear Technology Day.

The FMP is already partly operational, making natural uranium pellets for fuel assemblies, destined for the Arak reactor. So call it the “Festival of Unenriched Fuel”:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passover.

Kuwait’s news service also “reports”:http://www.kuna.net.kw/NewsAgenciesPublicSite/ArticleDetails.aspx?id=1988859&Language=en that “the production of a new generation of centrifuges” will be announced, presumably at Natanz. Does this mean that the “carbon-fiber”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1923/rimz-of-mass-destruction models exhibited last year at PFEP are now in production? We’ll see.

So what’s the point?

As in the past two years, the anniversary provides an occasion for President Ahmadinejad — now entering the homestretch of his re-election campaign — “to drape himself in the colors of nuclear patriotism”:http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8801190931. One can only hope for the traditional “open-source”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1851/iran-centrifuge-components “intel”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1870/more-on-the-ahmadinejad-visit-to-natanz “bonanza”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1901/ir2-and-ir3-scoops.

_Update: I missed this, the true “intel bonanza”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1849/ir-2s-on-display link._

Speaking of traditional nuclear holidays, the 11th “Yom-e Takbeer”:http://pkpolitics.com/2008/05/28/discuss-youm-e-takbeer-10th-nuclear-anniversary/, or Pakistani Day of Greatness, is coming up in a month or so. It commemorates the nuclear tests of 1998. Perhaps greatness is not “what comes to mind”:http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/05/magazine/05zardari-t.html, but symbols are funny that way: they lack substance.

(Hey, FCNL, why aren’t these dates on the “calendar”:http://www.fcnl.org/NuclearCalendar/?)

Coincidentally, representatives of the 5+1 group — the permanent members of the Security Council, plus Germany — will be “meeting tomorrow”:http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/04/08/burns_to_p51 in London. Before deciding to come out with any premature announcements, here’s another date they might ponder: Iran’s “election day”:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_presidential_election,_2009, June 12. With the recalcitrant incumbent boasting that Iran’s “nuclear case is closed”:http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8801191061, this might not be the best moment to supply him with election propaganda. Timing is everything…

Dept. of Media Criticism

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You all know that my “heart bleeds for daily newspapers”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1948/washington-post-it, right? It actually, figuratively does. I just phoned 9-1-1 for that heart-always-bleeding thing. Again. Figuratively. So this is tough love, right here.

April 1 editions of the _Washington Post_ indicated that “the Russians are unmoved”:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/31/AR2009033103873.html by American concerns about Iran:

bq. The Russians have reached an understanding with Iran over the sale of surface-to-air missiles but said they have yet to deliver on shipments. Though the United States has pressed Russia to exert more pressure on Iran to abandon nuclear-weapons research, Moscow insists there is little more it can do, saying its nuclear dialogue with Tehran is based solely on energy production.

That would be in line with President Medvedev’s op-ed in the same paper, just “the day before”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1954/on-medvedevs-mind.

So, something must have changed since March 18, when the same paper was telling it the other way around:

bq. As President Obama seeks to recast relations with Russia and persuade it to help contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions, he must win over leaders who are deeply suspicious of U.S. intentions and who have long been reluctant to damage what they consider a strategic partnership with Iran. But the Kremlin has indicated it is willing to explore a deal with Washington, and analysts say it may be more open to new sanctions against Iran than expected.

You could probably “guess”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1926/skepsis how that went over in these parts.

So how did the _Post_’s reporters unearth such a startling insight? This one expert guy in Washington told them.

In a meeting last week with a bipartisan commission studying U.S. policy toward Russia, President Dmitry Medvedev expressed alarm in “very graphic language” over Iran’s successful test launch of a satellite last month, linking it to Tehran’s nuclear program, said Dmitri Simes, director of the commission.

“Medvedev said it demonstrated how far-reaching Iran’s nuclear ambitions are, and that he was very concerned,” said Simes, who is also president of the Nixon Center in Washington. “He felt it was a clear challenge to both Russian and American interests and said he would like both countries to work on this challenge together.”

Nothing more heard from President Medvedev in this vein since then. Or before then.

So what do you say? Can we call this a lesson learned?

For The Record

Here’s what the “Obama-Medvedev statement”:http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iVZVQZKurqCWMUl_tMQk8_IatXKAD979LOBG4 says about Iran:

bq. While we recognize that under the NPT Iran has the right to a civilian nuclear program, Iran needs to restore confidence in its exclusively peaceful nature. We underline that Iran, as any other Non-Nuclear Weapons State-Party to the NPT, has assumed the obligation under Article II of that Treaty in relation to its non-nuclear weapon status. We call on Iran to fully implement the relevant U.N. Security Council and the IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, including provision of required cooperation with the IAEA. We reiterated their commitment to pursue a comprehensive diplomatic solution, including direct diplomacy and through P5+1 negotiations, and urged Iran to seize this opportunity to address the international communitys concerns.

There’s nothing like a “nothingburger”:http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=nothingburger.

“Musical bonus”:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3dO-Qi8W9Yk. Musical, literally.

On Medvedev’s Mind

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Russian President Dmitry Medvedev tells America “what concerns him”:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/30/AR2009033002443.html:

* Euro-GMD.

* NATO expansion.

* Lack of Adapted CFE ratification.

He also tells America what he likes:

* The Sochi “roadmap.”

* The resumption of arms reduction talks.

* “Collective solutions to the problems facing Afghanistan,” whatever that means.

* Creating a new international reserve currency.

Well, two or three out of seven is a start.

Not mentioned anywhere: Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.

“Better hit that reset button some more”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1926/skepsis.

A Modest Proposal

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I somehow missed it until now, but ACA’s Peter Crail had this very “clearly written piece”:http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?id=3386 on nuclear safeguards in Iran online a few weeks ago:

bq. In the months ahead, the United States and its allies may confront a choice. Do we want to get Iran to suspend its known nuclear activities, or do we want to achieve the transparency needed to detect any unknown activities? Both are important goals in their own right, but it may be increasingly important to shift our focus to the latter.

I guess the answer to that question depends on what the U.S. brings to the table. Assuming there even is a table.

Khamenei Doesn’t Rebuff Obama

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How anyone who is literate could read Khamenei’s “recent speech”:http://english.khamenei.ir//index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1067 as a rebuff to Obama’s Norouz “message”:http://www.whitehouse.gov/Nowruz/, I could not say.

Via “Farideh Farhi.”:http://icga.blogspot.com/2009/03/on-khameneis-response-to-obama.html

Another on Arak

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Speaking of the “Arak reactor”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1933/arakit-aint-no-natanz, I should have mentioned that Iran’s IAEA SGA requires Tehran to put the reactor under safeguards, which means that reprocessing the SNF without getting caught would, as far as I know, be pretty damn tough.

OK, I know “what I said,”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1932/olc-on-the-abmt but that _is_ the last post.

Arak…It Ain’t no Natanz

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Following up on Josh’s “post”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1931/irans-equinox-fuel-manufacturing-plant-comes-online … I understand the concerns that Einhorn and others have about the Arak reactor, but as a proliferation threat it’s not equivalent to the Natanz facility. That’s because enrichment facilities can produce fissile material, but you need a reprocessing facility to separate plutonium from spent reactor fuel. Iran says that it isn’t gonna build a reprocessing facility and, from what I understand, such facilities are considerably harder to hide than centrifuge facilities.

Just saying.