Author Archives: kerr

India and Nuclear Facilities

The section of “this document”:http://www.indianembassy.org/newsite/press_release/2006/Mar/29.asp excerpted below contains the details about the facilities that are to be covered under the US-India nuclear cooperation agreement.

Asked at a “RANSAC”:http://www.ransac.org/ hill briefing last week why the list seemed incomplete, consultant to the State Department Ashley Tellis said that Washington will have the list within a matter of days.

I feel better now. Or something.

The relevant section of the agreement follows:

4. Taking the above into account, India, on the basis of reciprocal actions by the US, will adopt the following approach:

(i) Thermal Power Reactors: India will identify and offer for safeguards 14 thermal power reactors between 2006 and 2014. This will include the 4 presently safeguarded reactors (TAPS 1&2, RAPS 1&2) and in addition KK 1&2 that are under construction. 8 other PHWRs, each of a capacity of 220 MW, will also be offered. Phasing of specific thermal power reactors, being offered for safeguards would be indicated separately by India. Such an offer would, in effect, cover 14 out of the 22 thermal power reactors in operation or currently under construction to be placed under safeguards, and would raise the total installed Thermal Power capacity by MWs under safeguards from the present 19% to 65% by 2014.

(ii) Fast Breeder Reactors: India is not in a position to accept safeguards on the Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) and the Fast Breeder Test Reactor (FBTR), both located at Kalpakkam. The Fast Breeder Programme is at the R&D stage and its technology will take time to mature and reach an advanced stage of development.

(iii) Future Reactors: India has decided to place under safeguards all future civilian thermal power reactors and civilian breeder reactors, and the Government of India retains the sole right to determine such reactors as civilian.

(iv) Research Reactors: India will permanently shut down the CIRUS reactor, in 2010. It will also be prepared to shift the fuel core of the APSARA reactor that was purchased from France outside BARC [Bhabha Atomic Research Centre] and make the fuel core available to be placed under safeguards in 2010.

(v) Upstream facilities: The following upstream facilities would be identified and separated as civilian:

List of those specific facilities in the Nuclear Fuel Complex, which will be offered for safeguards by 2008 will be indicated separately.

The Heavy Water Production plants at Thal, Tuticorin and Hazira are proposed to be designated for civilian use between 2006-2009. We do not consider these plants as relevant for safeguards purposes.

(vi) Downstream facilities: The following downstream facilities would be identified and separated as civilian:

India is willing to accept safeguards in the `campaign’ mode after 2010 in respect of the Tarapur Power Reactor Fuel Reprocessing Plant.

The Tarapur and Rajasthan `Away From Reactors’ spent fuel storage pools would be made available for safeguards with appropriate phasing between 2006-2009.

vii) Research Facilities: India will declare the following facilities as
civilian:

(a) Tata Institute of Fundamental Research

(b) Variable Energy Cyclotron Centre

(c) Saha Institute of Nuclear Physics

(d) Institute for Plasma Research

(e) Institute of Mathematics Sciences

(f) Institute of Physics

(g) Tata Memorial Centre

(h) Board of Radiation and Isotope Technology

(i) Harish Chandra Research Institute

These facilities are safeguards-irrelevant. It is our expectation that they will play a prominent role in international cooperation.

*_Jeffrey adds:* This is the part where I gripe that I posted a link to the same document the day before. I move to Cambridge and the synergy goes to all to pieces_.

*_Paul Replies:* This is the part where I point out that the breakdown in synergy is attributable to technical, not geographic, factors. Your link was broken last night_.

India Miscellany

Following up on Jeffrey’s “earlier post”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/998/indian-separation-plan , the text of the US-India Nuclear Atrocity tabled in the Indian Parliament 7 March can be found “here”:http://www.indianembassy.org/newsite/press_release/2006/Mar/29.asp. This State Department “fact sheet”:http://newdelhi.usembassy.gov/uploads/images/BmUr9WSWpctdFn_Li5TsyQ/civnucfactsheet.pdf is also worth reading.

More items of interest:

*Wade Boese and Daryl Kimball wrote “a rebuttal”:http://www.armscontrol.org/pressroom/2006/20060309_India_Critics_Rebut_WH.asp to “this White House fact sheet”:http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2006/03/20060308-3.html about the deal. They obviously have strong stomachs.

*For those who think that India has always abided by its international agreements, check out “these documents”:http://www.armscontrol.org/country/india_pakistan/Historic_Documents_India_Nuclear_Test.asp regarding US-India nuclear cooperation back in the day. Leonard Weiss spoke about them at an “ACA event”:http://www.armscontrol.org/events/200602015_Indian_Nuclear_Cooperation.asp last month.

*”This report”:http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060311/ts_nm/nuclear_india_usa_dc_5;_ylt=AmUE272QwHXwQ.xYJZWWtOFA7AkB;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl from Carol Giacomo of Reuters has the Indian Embassy’s reaction to the “ISIS report”:http://www.isis-online.org/publications/southasia/indianprocurement.pdf that Jeffrey “wrote about”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/995/tender-mercies-isis-on-india on Friday.

*Dave Ruppe from GSN took a “behind-the-scenes look”:http://www.nti.org/d_newswire/issues/2006_3_8.html#58072CE3 at the deal’s origins last week.

*Note:* If both John Bolton and employees of the Arms Control Association think something’s a bad idea, you might want to rethink it.

India Legislation Text

A copy of the administration’s legislative proposal regarding the US-India nuclear agreement landed on my desk.

Basically, the administration wants Congress to change the Atomic Energy Act so the US and India can conclude a nuclear cooperation agreement.

Here’s the text:

Authority relating to U.S.-India nuclear cooperation.

This provision facilitates civil nuclear cooperation with India by authorizing the President to waive certain requirements in order to conclude a nuclear cooperation agreement with India under the Atomic Energy Act (AEA).

The waiver is dependent on a Presidential determination that India has taken steps to fulfill the July 18, 2005 Joint Statement of the President and India Prime Minister Singh. These understanding call on India to separate its civil nuclear program under International Atomic Energy safeguards; and to adhere to the Missile Technology Control Regime and Nuclear Suppliers Group guidelines.

By authorizing exemption from certain AEA requirements, the provision authorizes the President to submit a proposed nuclear cooperation agreement to Congress under the Congressional review procedures of sections 123(b) and 123(d) of the AEA that would allow for it to enter into force after the expiration of a 90-continuous day period.

Section XX. Waiver Authority –

(a) Notwithstanding any other provision of law, if the President makes the determinations described in subsection (b), he may:

(1) exempt a proposed agreement for cooperation with India (arranged pursuant to section 123 of the Atomic Energy Act, as amended) from the requirement in section 123(a)(2) of the Atomic Energy Act, and such agreement for cooperation shall be subject to the same congressional review procedures under sections 123(b) and 123(d) as an agreement for cooperation that has not been exempted from any requirement contained in section 123(a);

(2) waive the application of section 128 of the Atomic Energy Act with respect to India; and

(3) waive the application of any section under section 129 of the Atomic Energy Act with respect to India.

(b) The determination referred to in subsection (a) is a determination by the President that the following actions have occurred:

(1) India has provided the United States and the IAEA with a credible plan to separate civil and military facilities, materials, and programs, and has filed a declaration regarding its civil facilities with the IAEA;

(2) An agreement has entered into force between India and the IAEA requiring the application of safeguards in accordance with IAEA practices to India’s civil nuclear facilities as declared in the plan described in paragraph (1) above;

(3) India and the IAEA are making satisfactory progress toward implementing an Additional Protocol that would apply to India civil nuclear program;

(4) India is working with the United States for the conclusion of a multilateral Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty;

(5) India is supporting international efforts to prevent the spread of enrichment and reprocessing technology;

(6) India is ensuring that the necessary steps are being taken to secure nuclear materials and technology through the application of comprehensive export control legislation and regulations, and through harmonization and adherence to Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) Guidelines; and

(7) Supply to India by the United States under an agreement for cooperation arranged pursuant to section 123 of the Atomic Energy Act is consistent with U.S. participation in the Nuclear Suppliers Group.

(c) Any determination pursuant to subsection (b) shall be reported to the Committee on Foreign Relations of the Senate and the Committee on International Relations in the House of Representatives, and such report shall describe the basis for the President’s determination.

(d) A determination under subsection (b) shall not be effective if the President determines that India has detonated a nuclear explosive device after the date of enactment of this Act.

Below is ACA Executive Director Daryl Kimball’s slightly-edited analysis of the proposal:

In essence, the proposal asks Congress to waive/exempt India from the requirements in the Atomic Energy Act [section 123(a)(2)] that currently restrict trade with states that do not accept full scope safeguards. Section 123 of the AEA (42 USC 2153) requires an agreement for cooperation as a prerequisite for significant nuclear cooperation with any nation. The United States has about 40 agreements for cooperation in place now, and had an agreement with India from 1963 to 1993. The proposal also would exempt India from other sections (128 and 129) of the AEA relating to nonproliferation requirements and sanctions.

However– AND THIS IS IMPORTANT –the President’s legislative proposal would treat the agreement for nuclear cooperation with India as a “non exempted” agreement, thereby requiring joint resolution of Congressional disapproval within 90 legislative days to block approval of the agreement. That’s tough to do. An “exempted” agreement ordinarily would not become effective unless both chambers of Congress approve the agreement, which means it would be easier to block and it would give Congress much more leverage in setting the terms of trade and termination of trade with India.

Furthermore, it would establish an extremely weak — almost laughable — set of required Presidential determinations that India is fulfilling its July 18, 2005 Joint Statement pledges.

The administration apparently wants the legislative proposal dealt with as a free-standing bill.

Finally, the administration is apparently telling members of Congress they must act before May, when the administration hopes to bring to the Nuclear Suppliers Group’s next meeting a proposal to exempt India from the NSG’s current rule that bars nuclear trade with states (like India) that do not accept full-scope safeguards.

The bottom line: There is no rush … it is imprudent to change 30 years of nonproliferation law and practice for an unprecedented agreement of nuclear cooperation that has not even been negotiated. (And those negotiations have not even started and will take months if not a year or more to complete.) Given that the proposed law would not take effect until India has negotiated its basic safeguards agreement with the IAEA, it could not enter into force for many months and perhaps much longer.

Congress should not make any changes in U.S. nonproliferation law that would exempt India before it the administration and the Indian government negotiate and deliver their final agreement for nuclear cooperation. The NSG should not consider any proposal before and unless the U.S. changes its laws and negotiates an agreement for nuclear cooperation with India.

TPM Cafe Iran Posts

These are the TPMCafe posts from a couple of weeks ago.

They can all be found “here”:http://www.tpmcafe.com/user/12267/recent. The more interesting are listed below (“interesting” being a relative term, of course).

“Is Iran Pursuing Nuclear Weapons?”:http://www.tpmcafe.com/story/2006/1/28/213053/162

“Iran’s Options”:http://www.tpmcafe.com/story/2006/1/26/184656/683

“Iran and the IAEA, Part II”:http://www.tpmcafe.com/story/2006/1/28/04333/8845

“Iran and the NPT – Fairness and Reality”:http://www.tpmcafe.com/story/2006/1/26/215519/576

“The NPT: Some Numbers”:http://www.tpmcafe.com/story/2006/1/28/151736/228

“Iran and North Korea Silliness”:http://www.tpmcafe.com/story/2006/1/28/21142/9235

“Bulletin: A Nuclear-Armed Iran Would Be Bad”:http://www.tpmcafe.com/story/2006/1/24/222338/935

“The Iranian Controversy – A Brief Introduction”:http://www.tpmcafe.com/story/2006/1/23/22353/1467

“Pearls and Candy – An Addition”:http://www.tpmcafe.com/story/2006/1/23/222913/317

Tunnels at Iran’s UCF

Just one addition to Jeffrey’s sweet “strike package post”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/952/iran-the-bomb-3-strike-options.

He wrote:

Esfahan has another feature, however, that suggests a serious problem. North of the facility, there are a pair of roads that clearly reveal entrances to tunnels within the mountain. (Der Spiegel claimed the tunnels housed a secret Uranium Conversion Facility.)

Unlike the underground bunkers are Natanz, I am not sure the IC has any idea what is in those tunnels or their precise location beneath the mountain.

Actually, the IAEA has been able to visit the site. Last April, “I wrote”:http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2005_04/Iran_Goldschmidt.asp that:

bq. [then-IAEA DDG Pierre] Goldschmidt also reported that Iran has begun constructing underground tunnels for storing nuclear materials near its uranium-conversion facility. Tehran notified the IAEA about the project, which Iran says began in September 2004, two days before agency inspectors visited the site Dec. 15. According to its safeguards agreement, Iran should have notified the IAEA earlier about the project, Goldschmidt said.

Furthermore, a State Department official said that

bq. Washington is not concerned about Iran conducting clandestine nuclear activities in the tunnels because the site is subject to IAEA monitoring.

“ISIS noted”:http://www.isis-online.org/publications/iran/esfahantunnels.html that the tunnel facility

bq. …appears too big to be only for storage. It might be intended to house production facilities for some uranium conversion processes. It does not appear large enough to be a complete duplicate of the UCF.

Now, over to TPM Cafe…

Cheney: No Close Relationship Between Iran and al-Qaeda

Really.

From a “radio interview”:http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2006/01/20060120-1.html today:

Do you believe there are ties between the Iranian regime and al Qaeda, Mr. Vice President?

THE VICE PRESIDENT: I wouldn’t put it in those terms. I think you’ve got to remember that the al Qaeda organization is primarily made up of radical Sunni Islamists, of course, and the Iranian regime is Shia-dominated — Shia. So there’s not a natural fit there. That doesn’t mean that there haven’t been relationships over the years, but I don’t believe it’s close. I haven’t seen any evidence of that.

Note the contrast to Cheney’s “recent departure from reality RE: Iraq and al-Qaeda”:http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2006/01/20060111-5.html, which contained this bit of genius:

bq. …a lot of those documents that were captured over there that have not yet been evaluated offer additional evidence that, in fact, there was a relationship that stretched over many years between Saddam Hussein and the al Qaeda organization.

No need to evaluate documents when you already have the answer…

Iran and UF6 – It’s Official

Iran seems to have pulled the rough diplomatic equivalent of downing eight pints and running around all over the place.

This just in:

*Iran Begins Removal of IAEA Seals at Enrichment-related Locations*

Vienna, 10 January 2006 – IAEA inspectors confirmed today that Iran started to remove IAEA seals on enrichment-related equipment and material at Natanz. Based on the information currently available, the removal of Agency seals at enrichment site of Natanz, and at two related storage and testing locations, Pars Trash and Farayand Technique, will be completed by 11 January 2006.

On 7 January 2006, Iran requested that the Agency remove, before 9 January 2006, specified seals at Natanz, Pars Trash and Farayand Technique. These seals covered P-1 centrifuge components, maraging steel, high strength aluminium and centrifuge quality control and manufacturing equipment, as well as two cylinders containing UF6 located at Natanz. The seals also covered some process equipment at the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP) at Natanz.

According to Iran, the intended scale of the “R&D” is small and will be carried out at PFEP. Iran has also informed the Agency that it planned to install small-scale gas ultracentrifuge cascades at PFEP and that, during this “R&D”, UF6 gas would be fed into these cascades for research purposes. Iran also indicated that these activities may include the manufacturing of a limited number of new components, currently planned only for P-1 centrifuges.

The cascade hall and the UF6 feed and withdrawal stations at PFEP will continue to be covered by IAEA containment and surveillance measures….

I “noted last night”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/931/iran-to-resume-uranium-enrichment that Iran had said it wouldn’t start producing nuclear fuel, but added that Tehran might engage in some linguistic hair-splitting.

“This is apparently the case.”:http://www.irna.ir/en/news/view/line-24/0601106548122559.htm According to Mohammad Saeedi, the deputy head for international affairs of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization (IAEO):

bq. “We differentiate nuclear fuel production with research and access to technology. Suspension of nuclear fuel production will be continued in the country”…

Saeedi also revealed either serious ignorance or nuts of steel.

According to IRNA:

bq. Saeedi expressed hope Iran can reach a consensus with the European side on its nuclear activities within a logical framework so that all concerns can be removed.

Good luck with that. “CNN has a decent roundup”:http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/01/10/iran.nuclear/index.html of the international reaction. Short version: everyone’s pissed.

Strong work.

Iran to Resume Uranium Enrichment?

That’s what “Jacqueline Shire is reporting”:http://abcnews.go.com/International/story?id=1488020 over at ABCNews.com:

Sources with knowledge of Iran’s nuclear program tell ABC News that a senior Iranian official notified the IAEA verbally over the weekend of its intention to introduce uranium hexafluoride gas, or UF6, into centrifuges at a facility in Natanz, 150 miles south of Tehran.

Introducing UF6 into centrifuges is the necessary step in producing enriched uranium. The centrifuges work by separating out uranium-235 atoms, which can be used to make nuclear weapons and also to fuel nuclear reactors, from heavier uranium-238 atoms.

This would suck.

I am, I admit, a bit surprised by this news. When I first heard about Iran’s intentions to conduct additional nuclear research, my thoughts were similar to Robert Einhorn’s:

bq. “When we learned last week that Iran was going to resume some ‘research and development’ work at Natanz, we assumed there would be some modest initial activity, such as the production of centrifuge components, but this is a much bigger step,” said Robert Einhorn a former assistant secretary of state for nonproliferation”

I wasn’t sure they’d even go _that_ far. Presumably, the Iranians could conduct research that would technically fall within the scope of the November 2004 agreement suspending:

bq. … all enrichment related and reprocessing activities, and specifically: the manufacture and import of gas centrifuges and their components; the assembly, installation, testing or operation of gas centrifuges; work to undertake any plutonium separation, or to construct or operate any plutonium separation installation; and all tests or production at any uranium conversion installation.

It’ll be illuminating if/when documentation of Iran’s notification to the IAEA becomes available.

One possibility: this verbal notification may be Iran’s way of gauging the international community’s reaction.

I say that because several recent Iranian statements suggested that they wouldn’t start enriching uranium.

For instance, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hamid-Reza Asefi “said 3 January”:http://www.irna.ir/en/news/view/menu-234/0601037949181117.htm that “nuclear research has nothing to do with enrichment and production of atomic fuel.”

According to the Mehr News Agency, Mohammad Saeedi, Deputy Director of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization issued a similar statement the same day. He added that Tehran “had not yet made a final decision on producing nuclear fuel.”

Of course, they could just be torturing the definition of “producing nuclear fuel.”

Wrong week to quit sniffing glue…

Carnegie Conference Blogging Errata

The Carnegie people were kind enough to ask Jeffrey and me to “blog”:http://www.carnegieendowment.org/static/npp/2005conference/blogs/paul_kerr.htm during their recent Nonproliferation Conference.

So my first ACW post in a while is to inform readers that I F’d up two posts. I’ve already notified the hard-working people at Carnegie, but thought I’d post the corrections here while they (I hope) are catching up on some well-deserved sleep after a really outstanding conference.

I don’t think either of these are serious errors, but in the interest of accuracy…

*Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Europe.* In the post I wrote about the first panel that NPR broadcasted yesterday, I “wrote”:http://www.carnegieendowment.org/static/npp/2005conference/blogs/paul_kerr.htm:

During the afternoon’s first NPR panel, Amb. Linton Brooks, Sen. Lugar, and former Sen. Nunn were asked why we still have tactical nuclear weapons in Europe.

Brooks replied, “There may as well be” and spoke about the importance of nuclear weapons to NATO’s defense.

The substance of this was correct. But after listening to the broadcast again, I realized that I had misunderstood Brooks – he was saying that he might as well be the first person to answer the question.

I should have just said “Brooks spoke about the importance of nuclear weapons to NATO’s defense.”

*Bob Joseph’s Lunch Talk.* In a post about Robert Joseph’s speech during lunch (see, also, “Jeffrey’s post”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/850/bob-joseph-just-doesnt-get-it), I “wrote”:http://www.carnegieendowment.org/static/npp/2005conference/blogs/paul_kerr.htm:

Third, Joseph utterly ignored the fact that we will not have a verifiable strategic arms control treaty with Russia when START II expires in 2009. As far as I know, we have not made much headway in devising any verification measures for the Moscow Treaty. Not that it would matter all that much for a treaty that expires at the end of 2012.

But a senior colleague properly pointed out that START II does not exist … obviously, I meant START I.

UNMOVIC’s Future

From what I am being told, the UNSC will not make a decision about UNMOVIC’s future during its upcoming meeting.

Whether or not to keep UNMOVIC or a similar organization has been a matter of debate for quite a while now. For example, Hans Blix “has argued”:http://www.armscontrol.org/events/blixinterview_june03.asp that such an organization could be useful in dealing with future proliferators.

However, the prospect that previously WMD-free Iraq could pursue nasty weapons may keep UNMOVIC in business a while longer.

John Barry “writes”:http://msnbc.msn.com/id/8940843/site/newsweek/ in _Newsweek_ article:

In case a future Iraqi leader decides that Iran’s nuclear ambitions next door mean Iraq should restart Saddam Hussein’s nuclear-, chemical- or biological-weapon program, what kind of international monitoring should the country be subject to? “The question is starting to bubble up,” says a British official who is not allowed by his government to speak for attribution.

Demetrios Perricos, head of the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission, the agency probing Iraq’s WMD work before the U.S. invasion, raised the issue in the United Nations Security Council in June. France and Russia both indicated that they thought Iraq would need to accept continued special inspections. The United States did not comment because Iraqi politicians are reportedly adamant that the new, sovereign Iraq will accept no special constraints or monitoring. “They are demanding the same treatment as any other nation,” says a U.N. official who spoke anonymously because of the sensitivity of his position.

So we may end up with an Iraq that has no WMD, but is subject to a UN monitoring system intended to prevent Baghdad from reconstituting its WMD programs – the same thing we _could_ have had without the invasion.

Ick.