Author Archives: kerr

On Coincidences

Check out Dmitriy Medvedev’s response to a question on whether the timing of his “state of the nation speech”:http://www.kremlin.ru/eng/speeches/2008/11/05/2144_type70029type82917type127286_208836.shtml so close to the U.S. election was “coincidental”:

bq. MEDVEDEV: Do you think this is blackmail? This is not just a coincidence, I can disclose to you the inside workings of this. Two times I postponed my state-of-the-nation address because I was not happy with the documents that had been prepared for me, and at some time I simply had to sit down at the table and edit the text of that state-of-the-nation address. And the date I chose was November 5. *With all my respect to the United States, I absolutely forgot about the important political event that had to take place that day. There is nothing personal here.*

Ok. Maybe he didn’t quite _forget_. But this just goes to say that not all events in the world necessarily revolve around U.S. elections. Thus, they shouldn’t be “interpreted”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2083/medvedevs-welcome-to-obama as such.

Full transcript of Medvedev’s “CFR talk is here”:http://www.cfr.org/publication/17775/conversation_with_dmitry_medvedev.html.

*Update*: In a story that starts with Medvedev’s comment about lack of trust in U.S.-Russian relations (from aforementioned CFR talk), WaPo ran a pic of “Medvedev pouting”:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/15/AR2008111502528.html. Sheesh.

ACW and Troglodytes

Reading “this post”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2095/have-a-sense-of-humor inspired me to break out “this”:http://www.cduniverse.com/search/xx/music/pid/1056981/a/Attack+Of+The+Killer+B’S.htm Anthrax album. In reference to the tune “Dallabnikufesin,” the liner notes say

bq. If anyone is offended by this song, they’re an idiot.

Foster Criteria and Article II of the NPT

After recently re-reading “this post”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/category/nuclear-energy by J Acton, I realized that it’s a bit difficult to find then-ACDA Director William Foster’s 1968 statement to the SFRC (AKA, the “Foster Criteria”), which described the U.S. position on those activities that would violate Article II of the NPT.

Here it is:

Extension of Remarks by Mr. Foster in Response to Question Regarding Nuclear Explosive Devices

The treaty articles in question are Article II, in which non-nuclear-weapon parties undertake “not to manufacture or otherwise acquire nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices,” and Article IV, which provides that nothing in the Treaty is to be interpreted as affecting the right of all Parties to the Treaty “to develop research, production and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes…in conformity with Articles I and II of this Treaty.” In the course of the negotiation of the Treaty, United States representatives were asked their views on what would constitute the “manufacture” of a nuclear weapon or other nuclear explosive device under Article II of the draft treaty. Our reply was as follows:

“While the general intent of this provision seems clear, and its application to cases such as those discussed below should present little difficulty, the United States believe [sic] it is not possible at this time to formulate a comprehensive definition or interpretation. There are many hypothetical situations which might be imagined and it is doubtful that any general definition or interpretation, unrelated to specific fact situations could satisfactorily deal with all such situations.”

“Some general observations can be made with respect to the question of whether or not a specific activity constitutes prohibited manufacture under the proposed treaty. For example, facts indicating that the purpose of a particular activity was the acquisition of a nuclear explosive device would tend to show non-compliance. (Thus, the construction of an experimental or prototype nuclear explosive device would be covered by the term ‘manufacture’ as would be the production of components which could only have relevance to a nuclear explosive device.) Again, while the placing of a particular activity under safeguards would not, in and of itself, settle the question of whether that activity was in compliance with the treaty, it would of course be helpful in allaying any suspicion of non-compliance.”

“It may be useful to point out, for illustrative purposes, several activities which the United States would not consider per se to be violations of the prohibitions in Article II. Neither uranium enrichment nor the stockpiling of fissionable material in connection with a peaceful program would violate Article II so long as these activities were safeguarded under Article III. Also clearly permitted would be the development, under safeguards, of plutonium fueled power reactors, including research on the properties of metallic plutonium, nor would Article II interfere with the development or use of fast breeder reactors under safeguards.”

GAO Report on PSI

The GAO just a released a “report”:http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d0943.pdf with some hot PSI action. Essentially, it says that the administration has failed to implement past GAO recommendations regarding the initiative.

Based on a quick glance of the report, I think these two sentences sum up the critique pretty well:

bq. [N]one of the agencies [DoS,DoD, law enforcement agencies] has established performance indicators to measure the results of PSI activities. Consistent with internal controls, establishing clear PSI policies and procedures and indicators to measure results will help the agencies better organize their PSI activities.

Tyler Drumheller and South African Nukes

I’m finally getting around to posting a tidbit I found a while back in Tyler Drumheller’s _On the Brink: An Insider’s Account of How the White House Compromised American Intelligence_.

I am referring to the assertion that, when Drumheller was a CIA operative in South Africa, his sources

bq. provided incontrovertible evidence that the apartheid government had in fact tested a nuclear bomb in the south Atlantic in 1979, and that they had developed a delivery system with assistance from the Israelis.

I really wish Drumheller had provided more detail about this evidence, which sounds a lot more concrete than the “Vela satellite evidence.”:http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB190/index.htm Obviously, a debate still rages about South Africa’s alleged test and cooperation with the Israelis, so more information would be welcome.

Idaho Samizdat Tweets

Over at “his place,”:http://djysrv.blogspot.com/ Dan Yurman posts a continuous stream of news items, mostly about nuclear energy, via Twitter. It’s definitely worth a look-see.

Or you can do what I do and “follow”:http://twitter.com/djysrv his Twitter feed directly. Needless to say, I read his blog as well.

BBC on Lost U.S. Nuke

The BBC has a “great story”:http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7720049.stm about the 1968 crash of a nuclear-armed B-52 bomber in Greenland. The BBC says that

The high explosives surrounding the four nuclear weapons had detonated but without setting off the actual nuclear devices, which had not been armed by the crew.

The Pentagon maintained that all four weapons had been “destroyed.”

That sounded familiar to me, but according to the piece,

*declassified documents obtained by the BBC* under the US Freedom of Information Act, parts of which remain classified, reveal a much darker story, which has been confirmed by individuals involved in the clear-up and those who have had access to details since.

The documents *make clear that within weeks of the incident, investigators piecing together the fragments realised that only three of the weapons could be accounted for.*

Even by the end of January, *one document talks of a blackened section of ice which had re-frozen with shroud lines from a weapon parachute. “Speculate something melted through ice such as burning primary or secondary,”* the document reads, the primary or secondary referring to parts of the weapon.

The U.S. conducted a search for the weapon, but never found it.

The Beeb also has what it says is a “declassified USFG video”:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7720671.stm of the operation to clean up the debris from the crash. And there’s “another video”:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7720655.stm of an interview with two of the pilots from the mission in question.

Was it the INS Chakra?

A submarine-wonk-colleague and I were just speculating this morning that yesterday’s “Russian sub accident that took the lives of 20 people”:http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jfn6BiK-75B0F4qtfZgNe12N18jw occured on one of the “Project 971/Akula class”:http://www.nti.org/db/submarines/russia/index.html boats.

And indeed. Though the Russians are yet to release additional information on the incident, the Indian press seems certain that it was the “Akula boat meant for India”:http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Accident_on_Russian_submarine_meant_for_India_kills_20/articleshow/3690965.cms. I wrote about “that boat, the INS Chakra,”:http://www.wmdinsights.com/I21/I21_SA1_QuestionsPersist.htm some time ago.

More on this later.