After reflecting on “this post”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/2157/2007-iran-nie-revisited-briefly a bit (I do reflect occasionally), I’ve realized that the 2007 NIE language I highlighted was always responsive to claims that the estimate was invalidated by evidence of post-2004 Iranian weapons-related activities.
Here’s that language again, for good measure:
bq. Iranian entities are continuing to develop a range of technical capabilities that could be applied to producing nuclear weapons, if a decision is made to do so…We also assess with high confidence that since fall 2003, *Iran has been conducting research and development projects with commercial and conventional military applications—some of which would also be of limited use for nuclear weapons.*
Again, absent more information about the projects in question, it’s impossible to know the full picture. But I should have noticed this before.