The well-known Pakistani physicist and social activist Pervez Hoodbhoy has a “five-year forecast”:http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/whither-pakistan-five-year-forecast for his country:
bq. As for the future: Tribal insurgents cannot overrun Islamabad and Pakistan’s main cities, which are protected by thousands of heavily armed military and paramilitary troops. Rogue elements within the military and intelligence agencies have instigated or organized suicide attacks against their own colleagues. Now, dazed by the brutality of these attacks, the officer corps finally appears to be moving away from its earlier sympathy and support for extremism. This makes a seizure of the nuclear arsenal improbable. But Pakistan’s “urban Taliban,” rather than illiterate tribal fighters, pose a nuclear risk. There are indeed more than a few scientists and engineers in the nuclear establishment with extreme religious views.
Read “the whole thing”:http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/whither-pakistan-five-year-forecast.