Monthly Archives: April 2007

Kahuta and SWU Capacity

Andreas Persbo has a “good post”:http://verificationthoughts.blogspot.com/2007/03/entering-kahns-little-den.html up at his place on the subject.

This is a decent summary:

bq. But what is the capability of this plant today? Well, figures are both unreliable and, in addition, some sixteen years out of date. It is *sometimes assumed in the literature that the facility has some 3,000 centrifuges operating at any given moment, and that the capacity of the plant is somewhere between 9,000 and 15,000 separative work units.* These figures rely on open source information compiled and assessed by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. (Albright, et al., 1997). The authors of the study readily admit that “the number of operating machines at any one time is highly uncertain. Part of the confusion is that Pakistan has installed considerably more machines than it has successfully operated. In 1986, it was reported that Kahuta had 14,000 centrifuges.” (See p. 275). Yet, *the claim that the plant is capable of a meager 15,000 SWU’s resurface time and time again.* Over the last couple of weeks, I have been compiling a Google Earth placemark of the A.Q. Khan Research Laboratory, cross-checking with public imagery analysis to get a complete picture of the facility. Almost immediately, *I suspected that the 15,000 SWU figure might be grossly misleading.*

The argument is a little involved, so read the whole thing. I was glad to see that he gave proper credit to “Jeffrey and Mark Hibbs.”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1399/p3-and-p4-centrifuge-data

Weekly Standard Wankathon II

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Michael Goldfarb, the “_Weekly Standard_ dude” I mentioned “here,”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1392/rok-intel-on-yongbyon-reactor “commented”:http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2007/04/absence_of_evidence.asp on my “post”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1392/rok-intel-on-yongbyon-reactor about the US IC’s assessment that Iran and North Korea are not collaborating on nuclear weapons.

According to Goldfarb, the US IC and I believe that

bq. an absence of evidence that the North Korean and Iranian nuclear programs are collaborating is, in fact, evidence of absence.

I’ve actually emailed with Goldfarb a bit in the past and he seems like a pretty nice guy. But this is really a bit silly. As I “previously wrote”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1337/_weekly-standard_-wankathon about a similar Goldfarb post:

bq. Absence of evidence is absence of evidence. “Some guy wrote it in the paper [or on the internets]” is not evidence.

I find the prevalence of this sort of “we should assume the worst” nonsense in wingnutistan to be an interesting phenomenon. I’d like to find time to write more about it, but I will note two things here.

*First,* Goldfarb’s post contains an example of a weird moral component that is frequently found in his ilk’s evaluations of potential threats from unsavory governments:

bq. I mean, we haven’t actually seen Kim Jong-Il handing plutonium to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, so I’m sure they’ve confined their collaboration to the development of missile systems.

He then implies that I and the US IC are giving “these rogue regimes the benefit of the doubt.”

To me, this sort of sneering rhetoric implies that one is a bad person if one doesn’t believe the worst about bad governments. Remember that Goldfarb doesn’t have an actual argument, just a label for the governments in Tehran and Pyongyang.

*Second,* examining evidence through such a lens conveniently excuses ignorance – why know anything about Iran and North Korea when you think you should believe “even discredited reports”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1375/super-villain-team-up of nuclear collaboration between the two?

*Update:*

Elevated from the comments…

I should have pointed out “this post”:http://roboteconomist.blogspot.com/2007/03/what-nonproliferation-means-to-them.html by the Robot Economist, as well as “this article”:http://www.democracyjournal.org/article.php?ID=6517 by Jofi Joseph.

ROK Intel on Yongbyon Reactor

IC on Iran – NK Nuclear Cooperation

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Greetings from Dallas.

While working on an article for _ACT_, I read a 27 February SASC hearing during which Sen. Collins asked Admiral McConnell and General Maples about reports that Tehran and Pyongyang were cooperating on nuclear weapons research.

Short answer: No.

That’s pretty much the long answer too. Here’s the exchange:

SEN. SUSAN COLLINS (R-ME): Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Admiral, in your testimony you describe Iran and North Korea as the states of most concern to us. Both are determined, it appears, to pursue nuclear capability. We hope that the recent agreement with North Korea will help in that regard.

You’ve described Iran as, quote, “determined” to develop nuclear weapons.

*Do you have evidence that North Korea is assisting Iran in developing its nuclear capabilities?*

*ADM. MCCONNELL: No, ma’am, I’m not aware of anything.* Let me turn to my colleagues, if they are. I don’t know of anything — any connection between the two.

*SEN. COLLINS: General?*

*GEN. MAPLES: No, ma’am.*

SEN. COLLINS: The reason I ask is there was a CRS report that was issued back in October of last year that says the evidence suggests that North Korea has had extensive dealings with Iran on missiles and other weapons. But General?

GEN. MAPLES: That’s correct, they have had extensive interaction on the development of missile systems. And Iran, in fact, has purchased missiles from North Korea.

SEN. COLLINS: But *there’s no concern that North Korea may be helping Iran develop nuclear capabilities?*

*GEN. MAPLES: There is a concern, but we haven’t seen –*

*SEN. COLLINS: But no evidence to support it?*

*ADM. MCCONNELL: No evidence, that’s correct, Senator.*

Check out posts from “Jeffrey”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1375/super-villain-team-up “and me”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1333/wankery-department-of about the subject. I also “made fun of”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1337/_weekly-standard_-wankathon a _Weekly Standard_ dude for criticizing them.