IR Diplomacy has “an interview”:http://www.irdiplomacy.ir/en/news/71/bodyView/1897871/Sanctions.Could.Not.Force.Iran.to.Negotiate.html with Peter Jenkins, who was UK Permanent Representative in Vienna from 2001 to 2006.

Without getting into his policy recommendations, he makes an interesting argument:

bq.. IRD: In June 2005, Bruno Pellaud, former IAEA Deputy Director General for Safeguards, said that if Iran had a military program, it would not have accepted the Additional Protocol. Is this a sound analysis?

PJ: Essentially, yes. *Iran would have been taking a big risk in December 2003, when it provisionally applied the Additional Protocol, if it had possessed nuclear material or facilities that it had no intention of declaring to the IAEA,* since the Additional Protocols grants the IAEA intrusive inspection rights.

p. Given that Iran apparently shelved its nuclear weapons program in late 2003 and Tehran agreed in October 2003 to accept the Additional Protocol, it might be more accurate to say that Iran decided to halt the program _because_ Tehran was going to be implementing the AP. But Jenkins makes an interesting point, nevertheless.

Well, sort of. I was looking for information on another subject in the “September 2009”:http://www.iranwatch.org/government/documents/us-wh-qomqandas-0909.pdf talking points/Q&A about the Fordow enrichment facility, when I noticed a (forgotten, at least to me) estimate of the amount of time Iran would need to produce an SQ of weapons-grade HEU at that facility.

In response to “How many weapons can [the facility] make?,” the portion called “IC-DRAFTED Q/As” states that

bq. The answer depend on the type and performance of the centrifuges installed at the facility, but we asses it would be capable of producing *approximately one weapons worth of highly enriched uranium per year,* if they chose to do so.

Based on the rest of the document, I think this estimate assumes 3,000 centrifuges, probably IR-1s. It also appears to assume unenriched or ~5% UF6 feedstock (since Iran hadn’t yet begun producing ~19.75% UF6), though I don’t know that for a fact.

So there you go.

The recent history of UNSC-imposed sanctions to end nuclear weapons programs is, well, um….just read.

“UNSCR 1441:”:http://daccess-ods.un.org/TMP/976316.779851913.html Iraq mostly complied and was increasing its compliance when the US-led invasion happened in early-2003. And Iraq had no WMD.

“UNSCR 1172:”:http://daccess-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N98/158/60/PDF/N9815860.pdf?OpenElement It’s pretty hard to say that either India or Pakistan has complied. Pakistan is a major non-NATO ally and the United States has obviously been improving its relations with India (as have a lot of other governments).

Yes, that’s condensing some complex history, but I think you get the point about compliance/response.

Since very few people wanna follow the twitter feed I set up for this blog, I will discontinue it soon. However, I have now opened “my regular Twitter feed”:https://twitter.com/#!/Pkerr2006 so anyone can follow it. I’ll cross-post blog posts there.

The Czech Republic’s “Security Information Service”:http://www.bis.cz/index_en.html (their counter-intel agency) publishes “English-language reports,”:http://www.bis.cz/annual-report.html some of which contain some non-pro info.

They also contain some other items of interest. For example, the “2006 edition”:http://www.bis.cz/n/ar2006en.pdf has a tale about some individuals who aspired to be Iranian soldiers. According to the report, the Service

bq. registered attempts of some individuals to revitalize the
neo-Nazi environment. The most visible manifestation of such efforts was an application for permission to serve in the Iranian army sent in mid-August 2006 by 41 Czech right-wing extremists to the Office of Czech President.

I do wonder how the Iranians would have responded.

bq. Iranian officials said Wednesday they were increasingly concerned about the United States of America’s uranium-enrichment program, fearing the Western nation may soon be capable of producing its 8,500th nuclear weapon. “Our intelligence estimates indicate that, if it is allowed to progress with its aggressive nuclear program, the United States may soon possess its 8,500th atomic weapon capable of reaching Iran,” said Iranian foreign minister Ali Akbar Salehi, adding that Americans have the fuel, the facilities, and “everything they need” to manufacture even more weapons-grade fissile material. “Obviously, the prospect of this happening is very distressing to Iran and all countries like Iran. After all, the United States is a volatile nation that’s proven it needs little provocation to attack anyone anywhere in the world whom it perceives to be a threat.”

“Where else”:http://www.theonion.com/articles/iran-worried-us-might-be-building-8500th-nuclear-w,27325/? And, yeah, I’m back.

I’ll get back to regular blogging shortly, but for now here’s something way off-topic – the “cue sheet”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/file_download/26 for the ~ 56-mile “route”:http://www.waba.org/events/2011VasaRide.php of the 2011 Vasaloppet ride in DC. I’m posting it because it’s a great training ride and I’ve had trouble finding the cue sheet in the past.

According to “WABA,”:http://www.waba.org/index.php which co-sponsors the ride with the Swedish Embassy, registration for the 2012 ride opens Jan 24. The ride is typically the first Sunday in March; I imagine that has not changed. I’ve ridden it twice and it’s pretty great. Also, contrary to what some seem to have heard, the ride’s not rough; the only non-pavement portion, as I recall, is a small part of the Georgetown Branch Trail between Bethesda and Jones Mill Road.

That is all.

OK, here’s a song about nuclear war:

Outta town again for a couple of weeks. Back later.

Yeah. Josh Pollack has an excellent “article”:http://www.playboy.com/magazine/the-secret-treachery-of-a-q-khan in the current issue of Playboy (link is pr0n-free) in which he reveals the identity of the fourth country (in addition to Iran, Libya and North Korea) to which AQ Khan provided centrifuge technology: India.

“TMZ”:http://www.tmz.com/2011/12/18/lindsay-lohan-playboy/#.Tu6a5-B-Suv attributes this issue’s rapid sales to the photos of a certain actress, but I think it’s obvious that purchasers are after Josh’s article.

*Update:*

For a primary source, at least on the IAEA’s investigation of the AQK network, check out Olli Heinonen’s comment in “this post”:http://lewis.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/4905/india-was-khans-fourth-customer#more-2140.