Author Archives: J-Pollack

скепсис

p{float: center;}. !/images/74.jpg!

Minas Morgul? The palantir is under the spire at the top.

“According to Mr. Google”:http://translate.google.com, the classical Greek word _skepsis_ is also the preferred Russian term for “skepticism.”

You can color me скептический after reading “this article in today’s Post”:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/17/AR2009031703033.html.

As President Obama seeks to recast relations with Russia and persuade it to help contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions, he must win over leaders who are deeply suspicious of U.S. intentions and who have long been reluctant to damage what they consider a strategic partnership with Iran. But the Kremlin has indicated it is willing to explore a deal with Washington, and analysts say it may be more open to new sanctions against Iran than expected.

The Obama administration has all but decided not to make a new push for sanctions until after it tries engaging Iran diplomatically and improving ties with Moscow, according to administration officials and Russia analysts. If the overture to Iran fails, as many expect, administration officials believe they will be able to make a stronger case for sanctions to Russian leaders they hope will be more invested in a new relationship with the United States.

Russian support is crucial on nonproliferation issues, particularly Iran. It’s really, really difficult to imagine this issue being resolved peacefully if Moscow doesn’t play a constructive role, so it’s encouraging to see someone “trying to win the Russian side over”:http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1068299.html, “for a change”:http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6658633.stm. But let’s not imagine that an American charm offensive could suddenly melt hearts in “Minas Morgul”:http://www.tuckborough.net/fortress.html#Minas%20Morgul or instill a sense of urgency that did not exist before.

Reaching an understanding on really tough sanctions will be hard. After control of energy supplies, “arms sales”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1911/playing-the-gargoyle-card and “nuclear sales”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1836/bushehr-update are the core of Russian influence abroad, and Russia hasn’t escaped the global economic crisis, either. There is also some risk of, ahem, _overcharging_ the agenda, where “strategic arms talks”:http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/columnists/pavel-podvig/formulating-the-next-us-russian-arms-control-agreement are already at “center stage”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1896/like-shooting-monkeys-in-a-barrel.

After years of butting heads, seducing the Kremlin away from an “oppositional”:http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/05/world/europe/05kyrgyz.html, “zero-sum view of NATO”:http://www.kremlin.ru/eng/speeches/2008/07/15/1121_type82912type84779_204155.shtml that seems to pay dividends at home may be too much even for America’s intrepid Secretary of State, but I wish her good luck. Better press that “reset button”:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GdLClHAMB0 a few more times, just to be sure.

_Note for the perplexed: if you don’t recognize the building in the photo at the top, it’s the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs._

Best of Intentions

The final communiqué of a London conference on preventing arms smuggling into the Gaza Strip is “here”:http://www.fco.gov.uk/en/newsroom/latest-news/?view=News&id=14977034.

The partner countries have agreed to do a number of good and worthy things, but stopping ships at sea “isn’t necessarily one of them”:http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j9iZOqzEELy9eTKhYiL4ajCls9rwD96TT9D00:

A senior British diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity in line with government policy said the nine countries agreed that “non-coercive” methods would be used to clamp down on the arms flow.

That means, he said, that any vessel whose captain refuses to allow the ship to be boarded for an inspection will not be forced to submit to the procedure.

Alas, as anticipated, it’s “PSI Part Deux”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1837/psi-part-deux-red-sea-regatta. If it doesn’t involve the “Russians”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1839/exercising-vigilance or the Chinese — all of the permanent members of the Security Council, in fact — then it’s just a sort of embroidery on existing authorities and arrangements.

Oh, and if North Korea launches a rocket, “South Korea may consider finally joining PSI”:http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20090316_1900.php. Good to know.

You know that saying, “It’s the thought that counts”? It isn’t.

Gottemoeller. Gottemoeller? Gottemoeller!

So says the “White House”:http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/President-Obama-Announces-Key-State-Department-Appointment/:

THE WHITE HOUSE

Office of the Press Secrectary
__________________________________________________________
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE March 17, 2009

President Obama Announces Key State Department Appointment

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, President Obama announced his intent to nominate Rose Gottemoeller for Assistant Secretary of State for Verification and Compliance.

President Obama said, “Turning the tide on the threat of nuclear weapons and strengthening the international non-proliferation regime is one of the great and urgent challenges of our time. Rose Gottemoeller’s extraordinary commitment and expertise make her a valuable addition to the State Department and my national security team as we renew American diplomacy to create a more secure world.”

Rose Gottemoeller Biography:

Rose Gottemoeller served as Director of the Carnegie Moscow Center from January 2006 to December 2008. Currently, she has resumed her position as Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment, where she holds a joint appointment with the Russian and Eurasian Program and the Global Policy Program. A specialist on defense and nuclear issues in Russia and the other former Soviet states, Gottemoeller’s research at the Endowment focused on issues of nuclear security and stability, non-proliferation, and arms control.

Before joining the Endowment in October 2000, Gottemoeller was Deputy Undersecretary for Defense Nuclear Non-proliferation in the U.S. Department of Energy. Previously, she served as the Department’s Assistant Secretary for Non-proliferation and National Security, with responsibility for all non-proliferation cooperation with Russia and the Newly Independent States. She first joined the Department in November 1997 as Director of the Office of Non-proliferation and National Security. Prior to the Energy Department, Gottemoeller served for three years as Deputy Director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. From 1993 to 1994, she served on the staff of the National Security Council in the White House as Director for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia Affairs, with responsibility for denuclearization in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus. She has taught courses at Georgetown University on Soviet military policy and Russian security in Eurasia.

Update: We’re all still waiting to hear if “this idea”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1904/rise-and-shine prevails.

Rimz of Mass Destruction

p{float: center;}. !/images/73.jpg!

Aw, yeah. Wheels and centrifuges — two things that spin. I’ll bet you never made this connection before, but it’s just one anecdote short of a certified “trend story”:http://www.slate.com/default.aspx?id=3944&qt=trend+story&qp=26551&sort=d;1,r;1&rowstart=1&rows=25.

Anecdote #1: Horkos

Earlier this month, the (Tokyo) Metropolitan Police Department teamed up with their Hiroshima counterparts — yes, Hiroshima — to “take down”:http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/newsarticle.aspx?id=24770 four current and former employees of the “Horkos Corp.”:http://www.horkos.co.jp/english/ It seems they had been selling advanced “machining centers”:http://www.horkos.co.jp/english/products/mc/ to Chinese and South Korean auto makers, while misrepresenting the capabilities of the devices to Japan’s “export control authorities”:http://www.meti.go.jp/policy/anpo/kanri/top-page/top/anpo-top-page-english.htm.

Word has it that some of the same devices used to make precision auto parts can be used to make precision uranium centrifuge parts. And they sold what sounds like “a lot of them”:http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/newsarticle.aspx?id=24770:

The men are specifically accused of falsifying export customs declarations in November 2004 and September 2006 for 16 machining centres shipped to China and South Korea, according to a _Mainichi Daily_ report. The newspaper added that Horkos is thought to have exported some 600 machining centres to China and South Korea since 2002.

Note that this is a new development in an “old”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1973/japnese-bust-export-violator “story”:http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/japans-struggle-to-limit-illegal-dual-use-exports.

(Purely for your edification, here’s a “faintly obscene animation of a flow-forming machine at work”:http://www.flowform.com/flowforming/methods_forward_flowforming.php. For the record, I’m not sure whether this is actually the type of device at issue in the Horkos case, but I’ll do what it takes to hold your attention.)

Anecdote #2: Iran Khodro

The “Iran Khodro Industrial Group”:http://www.ikco.com/default.aspx is Iran’s biggest car maker, until recently the manufacturer of the “iconic”:http://www.iranian.com/Arts/2003/August/Amir/2.html “Paykan”:http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4551841.stm. They make Peugeots on license. Reportedly “in response to a recent government mandate”:http://www.ameinfo.com/125595.html, Iran Khodro has leapt to the very frontiers of global automotive technology, producing new “gasoline-compressed natural gas (CNG) hybrid vehicles”:http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=188809.

One variety was “exhibited in Geneva”:http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/05/iranian-automaker-bets-on-natural-gas/ earlier this month.

But as it turns out, those CNG tanks are made from carbon fiber, which is “illegal to export to Iran”:http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20090312_8404.php. It’s the same stuff that “Iran’s new-model centrifuge rotors”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1851/iran-centrifuge-components are made from. Oops. Or Hmm.

[Update: Paul is “on top of the story”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1913/new-iranian-centrifuges-to-be-installed.]

(Incidentally, “this AP item”:http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iijfYgMUu7W_-ZKg8BjH5QNTww5QD96S1JA80 seems to contain the first mention anywhere of the IR-4 centrifuge.)

“M. Collin”:http://www.cpoagenda.com/latest-news/peugeot-ceo/, appelez votre bureau.

(Hey, it turns out that the Iraqi EMIS test facility was disguised as a “military automotive repair shop”:http://books.google.com/books?id=K_bDzw0Qb0UC&pg=PA56&lpg=PA56&dq=centrifuge+enrichment+automotive&source=bl&ots=1RrWIWlLDi&sig=voJcd4YoHQMlnDfUK_5qyvAeCnY&hl=en&ei=NQ_ASfuvFcGltgfQ36FN&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=5&ct=result. Well, close, but not quite the trifecta I was hoping for.)

Enough already. It’s “musical bonus”:http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x1algt_no-particular-place-to-go_fun time!

(You were expecting the Gary Numan song, weren’t you? Don’t worry, I’ve got “that, too”:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ldyx3KHOFXw.)

Update: It turns out that this is “old news”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/2003/old-news.

Libya’s Theory of the Hard Cases

p{float: center;}. !/images/71.jpg!

Why the big struggles with Iran and North Korea over nuclear weapons, nuclear technology, and delivery systems? Libya’s ambassador to the UN has the Simple AnswerTM you’ve been looking for:

“We gave some devices, some centrifuges, for example for America, but what do you give us? Nothing,” said Abdelrahman Shalgham, who served as foreign minister for eight years before being named ambassador to the United Nations this month. “That’s why we think North Korea and Iran are hesitating now to have a breakthrough regarding their projects.”

(That’s Ambassador Shalgam in happier times, above, poised to corral the Secretary of State.)

These and other remarks appear in a “fine article”:http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/11/world/africa/11libya.html by Michael Slackman of the _New York Times._ Therein, we learn that welcoming Libya back into the family of nations wasn’t enough. Partly, Libyan officials would like to see more rapid progress in civil nuclear cooperation. But most of all, they are surprised to see the continuation of the State Department’s routine hectoring on human rights:

One diplomat in Libya, who spoke on the condition that he not be identified because he was not authorized to speak to the news media, said the government was shocked that the United States still criticized Libya’s human rights record. Libya is a police state where security services operate with impunity and political opposition is not allowed.

“When you were enemies, we didn’t care,” the diplomat said after the State Department issued its latest “human rights report”:http://www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/hrrpt/2008/index.htm this month. “But now, you are supposed to be friends. We were surprised. There were “16 pages”:http://www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/hrrpt/2008/nea/119121.htm targeting Libya.”

(The links are in “the item as it appears at nytimes.com”:http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/11/world/africa/11libya.html.)

Tripoli is 1,200 miles east and a universe away from “Casablanca”:http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0034583/. One hears genuine shock and betrayal in these words. So in the interests of international understanding, allow me to assure our new Libyan friends that it’s not about them. Pretty much the “entire world”:http://www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/hrrpt/2008/index.htm is represented in the State Department’s annual human rights report, with the glaring but scarcely surprising exception of the United States itself. For that, we have “Mark Danner”:http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/15/opinion/15danner.html. [Update: And “China”:http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-02/26/content_10904741.htm, too!]

Friends, enemies, and everything in between show up in the annual report. Even “Canada”:http://www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/hrrpt/2008/wha/119151.htm. Even “Switzerland”:http://www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/hrrpt/2008/eur/119108.htm. As far as I can tell, the one and only country that gets a pass is “the Holy See”:https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/vt.html.

Life’s not fair, you know?

Does the Ambassador Have a Point?

p{float: right; margin-left:10px;}. !/images/72.jpg!

Now, having said all that, Ambassador Shalgham may have a little bit of a point. Exhibit A: North Korea. Since 2005, the United States has had not one but two special envoys for North Korea. One of them, Jay Lefkowitz — that’s his mug shot, right there — has “human rights as his special charge”:http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/biog/66929.htm. This has not stopped him from addressing the nuclear track, which he sees as properly “interwoven with human rights and aid”:http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122999769691029167.html:

Today, a Helsinki-style model should be replicated with North Korea, and the U.S. should promote linkage among security, economic and human-rights issues. Significant economic assistance to North Korea should be offered, including development assistance, World Bank loans, trade access and food aid, but it must be given only in return for tangible, verifiable progress on all issues on the agenda. And human-rights progress should not be measured by bureaucrats meeting and reading prepared statements, but by tangible steps that move North Korea closer to the norms of the international community.

“This”:http://www.aei.org/events/eventID.1635,filter.all/event_detail.asp “sort of thing”:http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/01/17/korea.nuclear/index.html does not go unnoticed “in Pyongyang”:http://www.kcna.co.jp/item/2008/200801/news01/29.htm#1, where it is seen as evidence of a “hostile policy”:http://www.kcna.co.jp/item/2005/200508/news08/29.htm#8:

Such U.S. behavior is a very disturbing act as it is little short of challenging the DPRK which has shown generous magnanimity and flexibility for a solution to the nuclear issue and an act of throwing a hurdle in the way of the six-party talks. The U.S. seems not to be interested in the dialogue and the settlement of the nuclear issue at all but more keen on standing in confrontation with the DPRK and bringing about a “regime change” and “bringing down the system” in the DPRK. If the U.S. persists in such behavior, it will compel the DPRK to change its mind. The U.S. should abolish at once such unreasonable post of “envoy” and abandon its ambition to “bring down system in the DPRK.”

Mr. Lefkowitz doesn’t get many invitations to Pyongyang.

Square That Circle! Or Not.

So what to do when nonproliferation objectives seem to conflict with human rights objectives, or other important goals, for that matter? Your humble correspondent here won’t pretend to have Simple AnswersTM to these knotty questions. What answers he might have are neither simple nor really within the scope of an arms control blog. So let’s just conclude.

Certain other countries absolutely see America’s interest in human rights and democracy as a threat, and the mistrust this creates can seriously complicate the pursuit of other objectives. It’s not just North Korea. Take the Russians, for example, or “the Iranians”:http://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=news.item&news_id=238778. [Link fixed.] (Mark Haas has placed “this phenomenon in broader historical perspective”:http://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/cup_detail.taf?ti_id=4350.)

So before we make a serious effort to negotiate, we might want to figure out which issues we really want on the table.

And let’s recognize that some issues are likely to force themselves onto the agenda regardless. “Like this one”:http://iran.bahai.us/2009/03/13/bahai-leaders-on-trial-coverage/. [Update: “Or this”:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/15/AR2009031501737.html.] This being America, complicating factors like public opinion and civil society can’t be wished away. It’s a Free Country,TM with all that entails.

Nothing’s simple, really.

Related topic: Dan Byman of Georgetown U. has asked, “Do Counterproliferation and Counterterrorism Go Together?”:http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/taps/psq/2007/00000122/00000001/art00002. He’s giving “a talk on the subject”:http://cissm.umd.edu/papers/display.php?id=425 at the University of Maryland College Park this coming April 30. Thanks, “FCNL Nuclear Calendar!”:http://www.fcnl.org/NuclearCalendar/

Cross-posted to “ArmsControlWonk.com”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2221/libyas-theory-of-the-hard-cases. See the “comments at ACW”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2221/libyas-theory-of-the-hard-cases#comment.

Late update: Here’s the “official Iranian view on human rights”:http://isna.ir/Isna/NewsView.aspx?ID=News-1313839&Lang=E.

A Swing of the Pendulum

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates on “the risks of precipitous action”:http://www.pbs.org/kcet/tavissmiley/archive/200903/20090311_gates.html:

I think one of the biggest lessons learned in this is that if you are going to contemplate preempting an attack you had better be very, very confident of the intelligence that you have. And I think that the lessons learned with the failure to find the weapons of mass destruction and some of the other things that happened will make any future president very, very cautious about launching that kind of conflict or relying on intelligence.

He’s going to ask a lot of very hard questions, and I think that hurdle is much higher today than it was six or seven years ago. And my personal view is that any future president, this current president or any future president, while they have to retain [the option], if they have very solid evidence that we are about to be attacked that we be in a position to take action to prevent that.

I think, though, that the area first of all will be are we going to be attacked here at home as one of the thresholds, and then the quality of the intelligence would be another.

Call it the Gates Doctrine.

Japan Shakes Its Fist At North Korea’s Rocket

So far, it’s just a “battle of words”:http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/14/world/asia/14korea.html:

“Under our law, we can intercept any object if it is falling towards Japan, including any attacks on Japan, for our safety,” said the Japanese government’s top spokesman, Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura.

If North Korea’s rocket launching is successful, it will not fall toward Japan but rather fly over it. North Korea has said that it will consider any attempt to intercept its rocket “an act of war” and that it will attack the interceptors.

For anyone who can’t wait for the first week of April to see how this turns out, here are the “results of a sophisticated simulation”:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7FZsvImbBY:

Shooting At Kwangmyongsong-2

It’s a very bad idea. Here is why.

Today, North Korea released information to international agencies showing where it expects the first and second stages of “Unha-2”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1877/kwangmyongsong-kwangmyongsong-kwangmyongsong to fall. “Geoff Forden”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2220/dprks-stay-clear-zones has a picture. The “International Civil Aviation Organization”:http://www.icao.int/icao/en/nr/2009/pio200902_e.pdf has a more elaborate version that includes civil air routes and other details. (See the second page of the PDF.)

What this shows us is a planned launch due east over Japan, dropping the first stage in the Sea of Japan, the second stage in the Pacific.

Currently, neither Japan or the United States has any known ability to shoot down a launch vehicle as it is boosting. There are plans, but the reality is still a way off, according to “MDA”:http://www.mda.mil/mdalink/html/mdalink.html. So if an intercept is attempted, it won’t be an intercept of Unha-2 (the rocket). It will be an intercept of Kwangmyongsong-2 (the satellite), once it has already passed over Japan, perhaps when it’s already in orbit.

In the past, the United States has maintained that its own satellites are equivalent to its sovereign territory. That’s a stance that’s difficult to maintain if one doesn’t honor it oneself. So entirely apart from the “legal issues”:http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2214/shooting-down-dprks-satellite-launch-its-legal surrounding North Korean missile activities — and setting aside “how the NKs might react”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1897/shooting-down-north-koreas-launch — it would simply be making a very bad precedent for the U.S. to make an unprovoked attack on a foreign satellite, one that would undercut the security of the most space-dependent nation on Earth.

Let’s think about this a little before doing anything rash, OK, folks?

Playing the Gargoyle Card

Here’s some more about the “S-300PMU1 (Gargoyle) not going to Iran”:http://www.totalwonkerr.net/1910/dvorkin-weighs-in-three-things-not-to-do. Or, if you prefer, С-300ПМУ1 not going to Иран.

According to “Interfax”:http://treli.ru/newstext.mhtml?Part=3&PubID=25315, the delivery of advanced air defenses from Russia to Iran may be postponed indefinitely. Whatever that means:

Implementation of the multimillion dollar contract for the delivery of Russian S-300 surface-to-air missile systems to Iran, which was concluded more than three years ago, may be postponed indefinitely. Experts believe that the primary deterring factor here is the emerging opportunity for improving relations between Russia and the US after the arrival of the new administration.

So… indefinitely, maybe, for now. Depending.

Belated addition: a “musical bonus”:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kn481KcjvMo.

Dvorkin Weighs In: Three Things Not To Do

Vladimir Dvorkin, former -commander- _Director of the Research Institute_ of the Soviet Strategic Rocket Forces, is “quoted by Interfax”:http://www.militarynews.ru/ cautioning against the following bad things:

* Shooting down a North Korean space launch

“I subscribe to the view that North Korea may try to launch a delivery vehicle to put a satellite in orbit. It [the launch] will also serve as a test of an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching Alaska.”

“As far as we are aware, Japan intends to take measures which will include the use of Standard-3 sea-based interceptor missiles,” he said, warning that such developments could lead to a “serious conflict situation.” Dvorkin said that American and Japanese counteractions could “cause China concern.”

* Underestimating Iran

Discussing Iran’s missile program Dvorkin said: “It has always been clear to me that Iran’s missile program is underestimated. Iran stopped using outdated missile technologies a long time ago.” In his view, “it is quite clear” that Iran is capable of building a missile reaching all of Europe.

Dvorkin suggested that Iran was close to building a nuclear weapon, Interfax-AVN said. He was quoted as saying that he “saw no reason why Iranian scientists should not be able to do it; perhaps they are short of highly-enriched weapons-grade uranium.”

“If Iran obtains a nuclear weapon it may trigger a snowball effect,” with the number of countries seeking a nuclear weapon going up sharply, a “total collapse” of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and “not just a regional but a global catastrophe,” Dvorkin said.

* Selling advanced air defenses to Iran

Asked to comment on media reports about an alleged deal on the supply of Russian S-300 air defense systems to Iran, Dvorkin said he wasn’t aware of “any such contract” but warned that giving Iran S-300 could cause serious tensions in Moscow’s relations with both Israel and the USA, Interfax-AVN said.

He is also quoted as suggesting that U.S.-Russian strategic arms talks will be complicated by the U.S. warhead upload capability.

Related items:

* Ted Postol proposes replacing existing missile defenses with “UAV-based boost-phase systems”:http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/12/opinion/12postol.html?_r=1&ref=opinion. As I read it, these systems ideally would be based in Russia.

* Richard Weitz reviews the the “S-300 question”:http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?id=3425.