The AP had a “story out”:http://www.boston.com/news/world/middleeast/articles/2007/01/15/iran_said_to_install_uranium_centrifuges/ a few days ago discussing the Iranian enrichment progran’s apparent lack of progress. It was cited in the Nelson Report a couple of days ago (an excerpt from which can be found “here.”:http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/001879.php)
p{float: right; margin-left: 10px}. !/images/3.jpg!
I am also under the impression that Iran’s centrifuge program is progressing slowly. But I have to take issue with the AP’s interpretation of an item that appeared in the Iranian press:
Other signs point to technical difficulties at Iran’s nuclear facilities. Earlier this month, Vice President Gholamreza Aghazadeh, who heads the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, told reporters that about 50 centrifuges had exploded during a test.
“We had installed 50 centrifuges. One night, I was informed that all the 50 centrifuges had exploded. … Ahmadinejad called me and said: ‘Build these machines even if they explode 10 times more,'” Aghazadeh was quoted as saying by Iranian media.
The problem is that the centrifuges exploded last spring. And that event is mentioned as part of a larger discussion which clearly characterizes the enrichment program as advancing rapidly.
Here’s what the report, which appeared in _Ayande-ye Now_ 6 January, said:
The president’s deputy then mentioned the doubts of some of the order’s authorities about Iran’s ability to put the Natanz plant into operation and said: “In Bahman 1384 [February 2006], after the meeting of the heads of the three powers, we broke the suspension; in that meeting, they doubtfully said that we cannot put the chain of 164 centrifuges into operation until the next year.
In the beginning of Esfand [March] of the same year, we received the permission to put the chain of centrifuges into operation and in Farvardin 1385 [April 2006], we achieved enriched uranium.” Aqazadeh then said: “During those days, once they called me at two o’clock in the morning and said that all the 50 centrifuges have exploded because the ‘UPS’ “[uninterruptible power supply]”:http://www.y12.doe.gov/library/acronyms/letter.php?index=U in charge of controlling the electricity had not acted properly. Later we found out that the ‘UPS’ that we had imported through Turkey had been manipulated; and after this incident, we checked all the imported instruments before using them.”
He then added: “In Farvardin of the current year [April 2006], we put all the chain into operation, but we could not achieve the three and a half per cent enriched uranium product. I travelled to Mashhad, and I begged Imam Reza (peace be upon him); I was very upset. Mr Ahmadinezhad called me and I told him that we have had no result. He said: ‘Even if everything goes wrong ten times, do not worry, do it again.’ The same night they called me from Natanz and told me that they had reached a two and a half per cent enriched product.” The head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization mentioned the achievement of four per cent enriched uranium product…[paragraph breaks inserted]
The part about the imported UPS having been “manipulated” is interesting…have some people been sabotaging their exports to Iran?
Paul, you mean that the comment about the 50 centrifuges exploding is actually in reference to when they were putting together the first cascade? If so then its been really misleading in the press… I’ve seen this quote Aghazadeh several times and got the impression is was regarding recent installations. Thanks for pointing this out.
What do you think about the commentary (Haaretz I think) that said that Iran must be moving slower since they originally planned to have all 3,000 installed by now but recently they are saying that they are still working on it?
Could the program’s slowdown be caused by Iran’s problems creating pure UF6?
Alternatively, perhaps the Iranians have made a strategic political decision to slow down.
How do we know the “Nelson Report” exists?
Years ago, the CIA shipped heavy equipment to Castro’s Cuba with square ball bearings, it’s a sensible guess they’re doing it now.
Technical manipulation is definitely a hallmark of CIA operations. During Vietnam, they managed to insert a few thousand 7.62mm rounds that had triple the number of powder grains into the NVA’s ammunition pool. They were designed to ruin the NVA’s AK-47s, but were also known to maim or even kill users.
Kudos to them if they managed to knock out part of Iran’s pilot casade even temporarily.
It looks like there may be context in the rest of the article, but I’m confused by the differing levels of enrichment mentioned here. As I read it:
They couldn’t achieve 3.5% enrichment, so Aqazedeh runs crying to Imam Reza. That night, though, he finds out that the centrifuges successfully enriched to 2.5%.
Then, presumably later, the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization “mentioned the achievement” of 4% enrichment. What was the timing of that announcement? If you have it, Paul, could you post the entire article?
Sure. Apologies for the formatting.
Iran Press: Atomic energy head details Iran’s nuclear activities
LENGTH: 2231 words
Text of report by Iranian daily newspaper Ayande-ye Now on 6 January“Iran has succeeded in producing more than 250 tons of yellow cake (UF6); and at the present time, it is producing four per cent enriched uranium.” While declaring this piece of news on Thursday in a meeting with some of the Iranian filmmakers, Gholamreza Aqazadehh, the head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization, talked about some of the achievements of Iran in the field of nuclear technology and said that they are signs of the superiority of Iran’s power. In this meeting, Aqazadehh stated words that had not been mentioned before. He announced that the UF6 project in Esfahan, in which uranium is being produced, has been designed by a young 27-year-old Iranian. At the same time, he declared that in the Natanz plant more than 3,000 people work in two shifts, and that in this plant about 10 billion tomans are spent on facilities. According to Aqazadehh, no sanctions can be imposed on Iran’s activities anymore because nuclear knowledge has been institutionalized in Iran and this is the reason why nobody can bombard Iran. At the same time, he stressed: “We will not cut our relations with the International Atomic Energy Agency, although the Security Council has no other way than holding talks with Iran, and imposing sanctions will not be effective.” Aqazadehh stressed that the origin of all the activities of Iran is inside the country. However, according to the plans, Iran is supposed to cooperate with foreign countries for the development of the nuclear power plants of the country, and now the time has come that these countries cooperate with Iran in order to fulfil the nuclear electricity plan. The head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization says that Iran is not indebted to any country for its nuclear technology; however, he says: “We are really indebted to the eminent leader because he did not let us become disappointed under any circumstances.“He then talked about the Americans’ plans in Iran before the revolution for the production of 33,000 megawatts of nuclear electricity and the procedure of constructing the necessary nuclear power plants for this plan. He mentioned that after the revolution the European companies stopping their cooperation with Iran from one side, and the lack of interest among the country’s authorities for the continuation of the nuclear programmes from the other side, led to the delay in Iran’s advancement in taking advantage of nuclear electricity. Aqazadehh said: “In 1371 [ 1992], Mr Hashemi-Rafsanjani, the president of the time, put the revival of the country’s nuclear programme on his agenda and signed an agreement with Russia to change the unfinished Bushehr nuclear power plant’s structure from the German model to the Russian model, although until 1376 [ 1997] this project had only two to three per cent progress.” In this meeting he mentioned that under the current circumstance the West has no problem with Iran regarding construction of advanced nuclear power plants; the only dispute is over producing nuclear fuel. The head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization then resorted to explaining the procedure of the production of nuclear fuel from the mine to the fuel bars and said: “In many countries that enjoy nuclear technology, the procedure of producing nuclear fuel is not carried out completely. However, because of the sanctions that were imposed on Iran, it had to construct all the circles of the nuclear fuel cycle inside the country in order to achieve this technology.” He then mentioned: “Iran is the eighth country in the world in the field of producing UF6; and from the viewpoint of the capacity of producing this material as the raw material for the enrichment of uranium, Iran is the seventh country of the world.” While mentioning that at the present time no university course is being held in the country in the field of the nuclear fuel cycle, Aqazadeh said that this is something common throughout the world because of the fact that this is a secret course of study. At the same time, he declared: “The specialized faculty of nuclear fuel cycle will soon start its activity in Sharif University.” He then mentioned: “At the present time, almost 3,000 experts who have graduated from the engineering faculties of the country’s big universities are active in the nuclear facilities of Iran; these experts are 30 years old on average.” Aqazadeh then added: In 1376, I was appointed as the head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization; this is while at that time the necessary potential for nuclear progress did not exist. I tried to attract international cooperation from China, Russia and France, but no door was opened. This is why I started a new experience and I resorted to the students and graduates of the country’s superior universities; and on the other hand, I presented a new definition of the country’s nuclear activities that was ratified by the Expediency Council.” While mentioning that according to the fact that there was no clear horizon for Iran’s progress in nuclear technology in the beginning of the way because of taking advantage of only domestic forces and not enjoying cooperation from foreign parties, the president’s deputy said: “I had to test all the ways; this means I had to resort to uranium enrichment, to think about constructing a heavy water reactor without needing enriched uranium and also to plan for research reactors for the production of radiological drugs.” The head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization mentioned the first visit of Mohamad ElBaradei, the secretary-general of the IAEA, to Iran’s nuclear achievements in Esfand of 1380 [March 2002] and said: “After that visit, with his meeting with Mr Khatami, Mr ElBaradei said: ‘The things we saw in Natanz show that you have reached a stage of the technology that only seven or eight countries of the world enjoy.’ This remar k of Mr ElBaradei later turned into the resolutions of the Board of Governors and the Security Council; and they put so much pressure on us that we were obliged to stop the activities in Natanz. We had a chain of 164 centrifuges with 36,000 rounds per minute activity, and we were supposed to increase it to the final speed of 64,000 rounds per minute in the next days; it was at that time that the Sa’d‘abad talks were held and in a telephone conversation, we were told: ‘Reduce the speed of the instruments; the activities are suspended.’ At that time, because of the sadness of the forces, who had worked day and night in three shifts for months in order to reach a result, the Natanz plant had turned into a mourning house in a way that the representatives of the agency [IAEA] were also impressed.” Aqazadeh then mentioned the decision of the order to break the suspension of the uranium processing factory in Esfahan in Esfand 1383 [March 2005] and said: “Even the high-ranking authorities of the country said that we cannot produce UF6, but in the Khordad of 1384 [May 205] we presented UF6 to the order. And today, we have more than 250 tons of this material.” He then mentioned another memory and said: “During his first visit to Arak’s heavy water plant, Mr Hashemi-Rafsanjani asked me: ‘Under the license of which foreign country has this plant been constructed?’ and I said: ‘It belongs to us.’ He said: ‘Have you ever seen a heavy water factory in foreign countries?’ and I replied: ‘We have not seen even one foreign heavy water factory.’ He said: ‘Mr Aqazadeh, I believe that this is impossible.’ And this was his idea, and he did not believe that we would be able to do so until we handed him the heavy water. At the present time, we are license-holder of a heavy water factory and a heavy water reactor.” The president’s deputy then mentioned the doubts of some of the order’s authorities about Iran’s ability to put the Natanz plant into operation and said: “In Bahman 1384 [February 2006], after the meeting of the heads of the three powers, we broke the suspension; in that meeting, they doubtfully said that we cannot put the chain of 164 centrifuges into operation until the next year. In the beginning of Esfand [March] of the same year, we received the permission to put the chain of centrifuges into operation and in Farvardin 1385 [April 2006], we achieved enriched uranium.” Aqazadeh then said: “During those days, once they called me at two o’clock in the morning and said that all the 50 centrifuges have exploded because the ‘UPS’ in charge of controlling the electricity had not acted properly. Later we found out that the ‘UPS’ that we had imported through Turkey had been manipulated; and after this incident, we checked all the imported instruments before using them.” He then added: “In Farvardin of the current year [April 2006], we put all the chain into operation, but we could not achieve the three and a half per cent enriched uranium product. I travelled to Mashhad, and I begged Imam Reza (peace be upon him); I was very upset. Mr Ahmadinezhad called me and I told him that we have had no result. He said: ‘Even if everything goes wrong ten times, do not worry, do it again.’ The same night they called me from Natanz and told me that they had reached a two and a half per cent enriched product.” The head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization mentioned the achievement of four per cent enriched uranium product and added: “During the last three years, the Iranian nuclear experts working in the nuclear plants have had no holidays except for the two days of Ashura and the Nowruz [Iranian New Year].” Aqazadeh said that the progress in Natanz plant is unprecedented among the country’s projects and then added: “In this plant, three thousand employees have been working for months in two shifts, and 10 billion tomans is spent on facilities every month in this project.” While mentioning that he has experienced a painful history in the last five years, he said: “Some of the former authorities did not believe in the necessity of nuclear progress, and they did not believe in Iran’s ability for nuclear advancement.” About Iran’s activities in Natanz from the beginning of this year until now, he said: “In no other project throughout the country do we have a 13 per cent progress like we have in Natanz.” The president’s deputy then added: “The day Iran’s nuclear activity was set forth, the position of the West, China and Russia was that Iran should stop its nuclear activity, and they are still standing on their position.” He then mentioned the talks between Ali Larijani and Xavier Solana and said: “In this meeting, Solana said: ‘With the knowledge you have achieved, you are the unrivaled power of the region. We want to have interactions with you in order to solve the problems of the region and the Persian Gulf, but you have achieved abilities such that we cannot count on you.’ According to Mr Mottaki, at the present time, and with regard to the nuclear progress of Iran, the literature of the West’s dialogue with Iran had changed compared to the past.” He then mentioned the West’s efforts to attract the Iranian experts and added: “Before presenting their reports to the agency [IAEA], the representatives of the IAEA who come to Iran with different nationalities present them to different intelligence services, and the Iranian nuclear experts and managers are constantly invited by e-mail and telephone contacts to go to America to study, research and teach or to work in high positions in the IAEA. However, the things that make hundreds of Iranian experts neglect these tempting proposals and content themselves with the low salary of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization is their national and religious sense and the identity they have found in the nuclear progress.” According to him, a young 27-year-old Iranian is the designer of the UF6 production project in Esfahan’s uranium processing factory. The president’s deputy said that the current period is the most distinguished period in the last 300 years of Iran’s history and added: “Today, we should keep this ability with insight; and if we retreat, this period of time will turn into a dark point in the history.” He then continued by mentioning another memory from the process of uranium enrichment activity and said: “In his last visit to Natanz plant, which started at eight in the morning and was finished in the evening, Mr Hashemi-Rafsanjani said: ‘I have come to the conclusion that nobody is able to turn back the thing that you have accomplished.’” Aqazadeh also talked about the possibility of destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities and said: “At the present time, Iran’s abilities have made the West worry. And one of the reasons that we are sure that they cannot bombard our nuclear facilities is that they know that nuclear knowledge has been institutionalized in Iran, and that Iran is capable of nuclear progress under any circumstances.” In his meeting with the country’s filmmakers, the head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization stressed the possibility of investing billions of tomans in order to explain Iran’s nuclear position and to show the abilities and progress of the Iranian authorities in films and television series. According to the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization, the Iranian filmmakers will visit the country’s nuclear sites, such as Natanz and Esfahan.Source: Ayande-ye Now, Tehran, in Persian 6 Jan 07 pp 1, 2