Comments on: Iran Misconceptions — Plus One https://totalwonkerr.net/2009/07/09/iran-misconceptions-plus-one/ Tue, 14 Jul 2009 00:23:24 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.0 By: Josh https://totalwonkerr.net/2009/07/09/iran-misconceptions-plus-one/#comment-792 Tue, 14 Jul 2009 00:23:24 +0000 http://www.totalwonkerr.net/iran-misconceptions-plus-one/#comment-792 Thanks. In fairness to those who may not agree, I should point out that 1 SQ of HEU would be a very serious matter. I just don’t think that they’d go for merely 1 SQ.

I don’t think the Israelis would use nuclear weapons first. It’s a grotesque idea, and you will note that prominent hawkish Israeli strategists like this guy consider the idea of nuclear first strike quite terrible, and speak only in terms of a second strike.

On the other hand, conventional strikes against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure by Israel, the United States, or the United States in combination with other allies could not be ruled out. In that event, Iran might be expected to withdraw from the NPT, a very problematic prospect.

It is possible that the threat of force is keeping Iran in the NPT, and the threat of NPT withdrawal is keeping force in check. Mutual deterrence.

]]> By: William deB. Mills https://totalwonkerr.net/2009/07/09/iran-misconceptions-plus-one/#comment-791 Mon, 13 Jul 2009 21:55:28 +0000 http://www.totalwonkerr.net/iran-misconceptions-plus-one/#comment-791 Marvelously well-argued post. Wish the obvious politicians would read this. But I can say from experience most can’t handle big words like “nonlinear.”

Sorry, had to get that off my chest before asking my question:

to what extent do you think the threats from Israel about a first strike against Iran, which of course has no nuclear counterstrike at all, will induce Iran to take the risky step of a breakout?

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