The same Army that suppresses any hint of revolt in Baluchistan hasn’t had much luck against the Taliban and its allies, either in NWFP or in Punjab. Despite their protestations, they just don’t seem committed to fighting what they somehow perceive as somebody else’s battle.

A good example is the Red Mosque affair, which went on for how long — months? years? — in the middle of the capital before anyone would lift a finger.

If there is a revolution in Pakistan, it will probably seem to the Army like a sudden fait accompli.

But that’s just pessimistic old me, I guess.

Sorry to take us off-topic, here.

The Punjab’s control all the important national government positions and are the largest ethnic group. They also make up most of the military, which has long played a sort of king-maker role in Pakistan. All they key levers of power are in the majority Punjab areas of the country. I could be argued the “State” of Pakistan is mainly just the province of Punjab – most of the rest of the country are really more like colonies than integral parts of the Pakistan state. Some are still administered as colonies (FATA, for instance). IOW, Punjab is the center-of-gravity of the Pakistan state.

Given all that, it’s not likely the Taliban, who are mostly comprised of Pashtuns, but do not speak for all Pashtuns, would ever be able to wrest control of the country from the Punjabs.

What’s more worrisome, IMO, is Punjab militancy, which has risen in the past couple of decades. Should it continue to gain traction and make inroads into the military and civil service, then we could see an Islamist government in Pakistan at some point in the future. Despite the media sensationalism, this doesn’t appear very likely to happen anytime soon because a coup or even a democratic victory by radical Islamists would have to be “approved” by the military in order to succeed.