Comments on: The Iran NIE…How Long Until A Nuke? https://totalwonkerr.net/2007/12/07/the-iran-niehow-long-until-a-nuke/ Sat, 15 Dec 2007 00:18:59 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.0 By: MarkoB https://totalwonkerr.net/2007/12/07/the-iran-niehow-long-until-a-nuke/#comment-608 Sat, 15 Dec 2007 00:18:59 +0000 http://www.totalwonkerr.net/the-iran-niehow-long-until-a-nuke/#comment-608 A very interesting post. The estimate totaly ignores the issue of when Iran can develop a nuclear warhead available for delivery against the CONUS by ballistic missile. Doing so pushes these dates out way further. If the purpose is to develop an estimate of when Iran could hit the US with a nuke you have to include that…especially given all the fuss about GMD interceptors for Poland.

]]> By: PC https://totalwonkerr.net/2007/12/07/the-iran-niehow-long-until-a-nuke/#comment-607 Tue, 11 Dec 2007 21:23:42 +0000 http://www.totalwonkerr.net/the-iran-niehow-long-until-a-nuke/#comment-607 I see your point about timeframes. My impression is basically that the estimates haven’t really changed though. Five years is a pretty big window when the early date is about 2 years off. I’d be curious to know if the classified version of the 2005 NIE (or perhaps the one that it was updating) included specific years like 2007, and was just changed to “early to mid-next decade” in the unclassified version.

I agree with the covert enrichment route as well, and I suspect that influenced, in part, the notion that an early date for creating enough HEU for a weapon is very unlikely.

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