Comments on: Khan Network: Steve Coll in New Yorker https://totalwonkerr.net/2006/08/01/khan-network-new-yorker-qa-with-steve-coll/ Mon, 07 Aug 2006 23:32:12 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.0 By: hass https://totalwonkerr.net/2006/08/01/khan-network-new-yorker-qa-with-steve-coll/#comment-228 Mon, 07 Aug 2006 23:32:12 +0000 http://www.totalwonkerr.net/khan-network-new-yorker-qa-with-steve-coll/#comment-228 Watch the intentional resort to ambiguity.
Nuclear “capacity” is a nice ambiguity that implies “weapons” but doesn’t actually say it since there’s no evidence. Instead, we’re given timelines to nuclear “capacity” and told of the threat posed by Iran’s “nuclear ambitions” – nevermind that both are perfectly legal under the NPT

]]> By: CKR https://totalwonkerr.net/2006/08/01/khan-network-new-yorker-qa-with-steve-coll/#comment-227 Wed, 02 Aug 2006 16:49:07 +0000 http://www.totalwonkerr.net/khan-network-new-yorker-qa-with-steve-coll/#comment-227 The Manhattan Project designed two nuclear weapons, operating on different principles of forming a supercritical mass, in 26 months. It cost $2 billion mid-1940s dollars. They did not have anything like the computing power of modern pcs, nor did they have all the hints and guesses now generally available about how to make a bomb.

Iran has been fiddling with various aspects of bomb-making for a decade or more. Presumably they have picked up some more information along that way.

So in some theoretical way, yes, Iran could have a bomb in two more years.

However, when we consider their progress so far and their economic and technical capabilities to mount another Manhattan Project, not this year or the next is a pretty good estimate. Maybe longer.

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