Comments on: Ledeen’s Iran Falsehoods https://totalwonkerr.net/2004/12/01/ledeens-iran-falsehoods/ Thu, 02 Dec 2004 20:42:08 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.0 By: Christopher Paine https://totalwonkerr.net/2004/12/01/ledeens-iran-falsehoods/#comment-7 Thu, 02 Dec 2004 20:42:08 +0000 http://www.totalwonkerr.net/ledeens-iran-falsehoods/#comment-7 “But it’s tough to argue that there’s not at least some basis for believing that Iran may want to deal with the EU3 and eventually give up its fuel cycle facilities.” Not much of a basis, I’m afraid. While Ledeen is certainly a fool—no argument there—I see little chance that Iran (or for that matter most NPT non-weapon states larger than Libya) would sign a formal undertaking permanently renouncing their current legal “right” under the NPT to fully develop develop the peaceful applications of nuclear technology. After all, there are the precedents of Japan, Germany, Holland, and Belgium—NPT non-weapon state members in good standing with nuclear fuel cycle facilities—so why should Iran accept anything less. “Delay,” “deferral,” “moratorium,”—perhaps—but “give-up,” never. And in the current climate, their “defiance” on this “peaceful use” question is likely to be supported by many other states.

Iran might ultimately be induced to agree if: (a) it perceives that it is agreeing to a new universal norm—i.e. fuel cycle facilities would be universally understood to constitute an intrinsic part of the “manufacture” of nuclear weapons banned under Articles I and II of the NPT, thereby trumping the peaceful use rights under Article IV, which by its own terms must be interpreted “in conformity with article I and II of this Treaty;” (b) there is a dramatic improvement in Iran’s regional security environment, including a complete withdrawal of the threat of US/Israeli conventional military intervention in its internal affairs; and c) the US,Russia,China,Israel, India, and Pakistan—Iran’s neighbors all—do far more to put their nuclear deterrents in some deep dark arms control basement, such that the frequently voiced Iranian fears of “coercion in a crisis” no longer seem as relevant—and real—as they do today. Of course, every time the Bushies open their mouths, they persuade Tehran of just the opposite.

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